654 FXUS63 KMPX 210021 AAA AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 621 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/ WELL DEVELOPED INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ERN CONUS IS PRODUCING LARGE PRESS GRADIENT OVER ERN CWA WITH 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS LOCATED IN THIS CORRIDOR. A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS WRN IOWA...EMBEDDED IN A MID LVL FLOW THAT IS BACKING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF TROF OVER NRN ROCKIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTH INTO ERN EDGE OF CWA WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS DIABATIC COOLING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UVV/DGZ PATTERN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/ AREA OF SNOW OVER RUSH/CHIPPEWA/EAU CLAIR COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS FAVORED DGZ/OMEGA COUPLET MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER RATES CAN BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE SIG ACCUMULATION THAN CURRENTLY FCST...1 TO 2 INCHES. ONCE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST...PTYPE MAY TRANSITION BACK TO R/S OR JUST DRIZZLE AS ICE NUCLEATION LAYER ERODES. AS WEAK WAVE SLIDE QUICKLY NNE INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ADVANCEMENT OF SFC HIGH INTO WRN/CTRL CWA. STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO CWA. AN AREA OF SNOW/INCREASING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE BDRY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREAS BY MID AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN/ ARCTIC FRNTL BDRY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF REGION THUR NIGHT AS A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CTRL PLAINS. LIMITED SFC DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS CWA AS COLD LAYER WILL HAVE DEEPENED TOO MUCH AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS SRN/ERN TIER OF CWA WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE A COLD EXTENDED PERIOD AHEAD. SECONDARY ARCTIC BDRY ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LARGE SFC HIGH SATURDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH MOVING EAST AS WAA REGIME INCREASES SUNDAY. LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LVL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO DEEPER NWRLY FLOW. MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY. TEMPS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY BEFORE MODIFICATION OCCURS SUNDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR MOON NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TO MUCH BLO TYPICAL SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 603 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013 A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER FAR ERN MN AND WRN WI APPEARS TO BE GOING NO WHERE QUICK WITH MVFR CIGS PREVALENT IN THIS AREA. SOME MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN A NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR EAU. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT MSP...RWF AND EAU. FURTHER WEST...THE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND AM ANTICIPATING A VFR EVENING FOR STC...RWF...AND AXN. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THURSDAY UNTIL DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF RWF...MSP...AND RNH...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW - PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE IA BORDER. KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH...IF NOT THE WHOLE THE PERIOD WITH SUB 017 CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE SNOW CAN FALL THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SHUNTED THE BEST POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MSP MOSTLY DRY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS. FRI NIGHT/SAT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10-20 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...BORGHOFF