829 
FNUS71 KLWX 161931
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKE HOLE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1345 EST ON NOVEMBER 16. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF TONIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN 
IS POSSIBLE LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 0.05 
INCH. ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER 
INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE 
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. 
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.   

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND IT WILL DRY THINGS OUT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FREQUENTLY 
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S. MORE 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
                    SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
                    PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. 
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. 
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE 
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH. 

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
SKY (%).........86     93     100    94     94     94     
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RN/FG  RN/FG  
TEMP............55     54     53     53     53     52     
RH..............74     77     80     80     80     83     
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   S 5    S 5    S 5    
20 FT WIND GUST.7      7      7      7      7      7      
CWR.............0      10     20     20     20     20     

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE 
                    IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 
                    MID-AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. 
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. 
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH. 

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
SKY (%).........94     94     94     96     96     99     
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY 
WEATHER TYPE....RN/FG  RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 
TEMP............52     55     60     63     64     63     
RH..............83     77     72     67     67     72     
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 5    S 6    S 6    S 8    S 9    
20 FT WIND GUST.7      7      7      7      11     14     
CWR.............20     50     50     50     50     60     

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. 
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC 
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 
                    MIDNIGHT. 
CWR.................60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT UNTIL 
                    EARLY MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL 
                    LATE. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 31 MPH. 

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
SKY (%).........98     96     91     86     89     100    
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY 
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 
TEMP............58     56     55     53     53     52     
RH..............83     86     86     93     89     93     
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 11   S 12   S 12   SW 12  SW 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.14     14     18     18     18     14     
CWR.............60     80     80     80     80     60     

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. 
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 
                    MPH...INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. 
CWR.................10 PERCENT. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT 
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 31 MPH. 

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
SKY (%).........59     45     48     50     51     50     
WEATHER COV.....                                    
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
TEMP............51     51     53     55     55     53     
RH..............86     77     64     53     49     50     
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 8    W 9    W 11   W 11   W 10   
20 FT WIND GUST.14     18     18     21     21     18     
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10     

$$
FORECASTER...LASORSA
REQUESTED BY...CAMERON CRISP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20131116.SMOKE.02/LWX