829 FNUS71 KLWX 161931 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKE HOLE FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 231 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1345 EST ON NOVEMBER 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MOST OF TONIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 0.05 INCH. ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND IT WILL DRY THINGS OUT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FREQUENTLY AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S. MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........86 93 100 94 94 94 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RN/FG RN/FG TEMP............55 54 53 53 53 52 RH..............74 77 80 80 80 83 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 7 7 7 CWR.............0 10 20 20 20 20 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........94 94 94 96 96 99 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RN/FG RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 55 60 63 64 63 RH..............83 77 72 67 67 72 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 8 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 7 11 14 CWR.............20 50 50 50 50 60 .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 31 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........98 96 91 86 89 100 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............58 56 55 53 53 52 RH..............83 86 86 93 89 93 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 11 S 12 S 12 SW 12 SW 11 20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 18 18 18 14 CWR.............60 80 80 80 80 60 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 31 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........59 45 48 50 51 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 51 53 55 55 53 RH..............86 77 64 53 49 50 20 FT WIND......W 10 W 8 W 9 W 11 W 11 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 18 21 21 18 CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...LASORSA REQUESTED BY...CAMERON CRISP TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20131116.SMOKE.02/LWX