621 
FXUS63 KFGF 150536
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS NORTHERN FA WITH CLOUD COVER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BAND OF MID CLOUD IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOWER CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD AFFECT THE NORTH GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT SO RAISED MINIMUMS IN THIS AREA. IN SUPPORT OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FA...RELATIVELY
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS PUT MENTION OF FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA HOWEVER WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP OFF TO EXPECTED MINIMUMS. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. 

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW MN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH RADAR RETURNS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK
BOUNDARY. METARS ALSO INDICATING A BRIEF SHOWER. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POCKETS OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...AS WELL
AS PRECIP TYPE. ALL MODELS GENERALLY OVERDOING QPF IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO WITH NAM BEING DRIEST...PREFERRING THE
DRIER SOLUTION.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN. METARS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LOWEST CIGS AROUND 2K FEET BUT
DRYING QUITE RAPIDLY BELOW THAT.

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH FAIRLY DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...CONTINUE TO THINK ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE OR
ARRIVE AT SFC AS SPRINKLES FOR MAJORITY OF AREA. RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...WITH CIGS NOW DOWN TO 2K FT
MAY ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I 94 CORRIDOR. ALSO
THINK BY THE TIME OFFICIAL FCST GOES OUT AT 4 PM...ANY PRECIP THAT
IS REACHING THE SFC OVER THE DVL BASIN WILL HAVE EXITED AREA. WILL
BEGIN TRIMMING POPS IN MY WEST AND FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY THROUGH BELTRAMI COUNTY. WITH ONLY SNOW OBS SHOWING UP
NORTH OF INTL BORDER...WILL ALSO LIMIT MENTION OF SNOW TO THOSE
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO MANITOBA AND ONLY ACCUMULATION IN VCNTY OF
LOW COUNTY.

TONIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SKY COVER AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...DEWPOINTS
ARE A GOOD 10 DEG DRIER TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO MENTION FOR FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S...HOWEVER
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SKY TRENDS ESP IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
MORE CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS ADDRESSED AT THE 1 PM UPDATE...WHILE
MODELS DO INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LAYERS AND A BAND OF
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...CIGS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART NO LOWER THAN 10K FEET WITH QUITE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
BENEATH. HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL 09Z...WHEN LOWER LAYERS FINALLY
SATURATE. HOWEVER...BY 09Z MID LAYERS HAVE DRIED OUT AND MOST
LIKELY PRECIP FOR EARLY SAT MORNING WOULD BE DRIZZLE. WITH
SUFFICIENT SOLAR IF SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND
RETURN FLOW KICKING IN...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S AND FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD EVEN TAP INTO 50 IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. SEE
PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

A TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING AND KEEP WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THEN WESTERN
ZONES. CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SD / SOUTHWESTERN
MN DRG THE DAY SAT. TRACK OF LOW STILL SKETCHY AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX
INTO SRN MINNESOTA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP
IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR SAT...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S P-TYPE
WILL BE RAIN. CANADIAN COLD FRONT THEN DROPS IN ON SUNDAY...AND
ANY RAIN IN THE EAST WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY LATE SUN AFTN AS
TEMPS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A VERY COLD 
AIRMASS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST 
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO 
BE ACROSS CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE THE PAST FEW 
RUNS...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CONFIDENCE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD 
SHOULD BE DRY. SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHERE SLOWER TO BRING 
IN A WARMER AIRMASS...DECIDED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS WARMER FROM THE 
ALLBLEND SOLUTION (WHICH INCORPORATES PREVIOUS FORECASTS) TO REMOVE 
THE COLD BIAS IT WAS GIVING. ACTUAL TEMPERATURE VALUES EACH SPECIFIC 
DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS CANADA. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFT FROM NW TO SE WITH
DVL...GFK AND BJI ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH WITH
SKC...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE THE FAR TAF SITE. ONCE MIXING INCREASES BY
MID MORNING ENTIRE FA SHOULD BECOME VFR. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER