621 FXUS63 KFGF 150536 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1136 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS NORTHERN FA WITH CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BAND OF MID CLOUD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD AFFECT THE NORTH GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT SO RAISED MINIMUMS IN THIS AREA. IN SUPPORT OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FA...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS PUT MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA HOWEVER WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP OFF TO EXPECTED MINIMUMS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW MN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH RADAR RETURNS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK BOUNDARY. METARS ALSO INDICATING A BRIEF SHOWER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POCKETS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPE. ALL MODELS GENERALLY OVERDOING QPF IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...SO WITH NAM BEING DRIEST...PREFERRING THE DRIER SOLUTION. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN. METARS INDICATE SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LOWEST CIGS AROUND 2K FEET BUT DRYING QUITE RAPIDLY BELOW THAT. LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH FAIRLY DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CONTINUE TO THINK ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE OR ARRIVE AT SFC AS SPRINKLES FOR MAJORITY OF AREA. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...WITH CIGS NOW DOWN TO 2K FT MAY ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I 94 CORRIDOR. ALSO THINK BY THE TIME OFFICIAL FCST GOES OUT AT 4 PM...ANY PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE SFC OVER THE DVL BASIN WILL HAVE EXITED AREA. WILL BEGIN TRIMMING POPS IN MY WEST AND FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH BELTRAMI COUNTY. WITH ONLY SNOW OBS SHOWING UP NORTH OF INTL BORDER...WILL ALSO LIMIT MENTION OF SNOW TO THOSE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO MANITOBA AND ONLY ACCUMULATION IN VCNTY OF LOW COUNTY. TONIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA SHOULD SEE DECREASING SKY COVER AND SOUTHEASTERN ND MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...DEWPOINTS ARE A GOOD 10 DEG DRIER TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO MENTION FOR FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 20S...HOWEVER WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SKY TRENDS ESP IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS ADDRESSED AT THE 1 PM UPDATE...WHILE MODELS DO INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LAYERS AND A BAND OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...CIGS ARE FOR THE MOST PART NO LOWER THAN 10K FEET WITH QUITE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BENEATH. HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL 09Z...WHEN LOWER LAYERS FINALLY SATURATE. HOWEVER...BY 09Z MID LAYERS HAVE DRIED OUT AND MOST LIKELY PRECIP FOR EARLY SAT MORNING WOULD BE DRIZZLE. WITH SUFFICIENT SOLAR IF SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND RETURN FLOW KICKING IN...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD EVEN TAP INTO 50 IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 A TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND KEEP WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THEN WESTERN ZONES. CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SD / SOUTHWESTERN MN DRG THE DAY SAT. TRACK OF LOW STILL SKETCHY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX INTO SRN MINNESOTA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR SAT...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN. CANADIAN COLD FRONT THEN DROPS IN ON SUNDAY...AND ANY RAIN IN THE EAST WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY LATE SUN AFTN AS TEMPS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY WARM BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BECOME MORE STABLE THE PAST FEW RUNS...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CONFIDENCE. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHERE SLOWER TO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...DECIDED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS WARMER FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION (WHICH INCORPORATES PREVIOUS FORECASTS) TO REMOVE THE COLD BIAS IT WAS GIVING. ACTUAL TEMPERATURE VALUES EACH SPECIFIC DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013 MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFT FROM NW TO SE WITH DVL...GFK AND BJI ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CIGS. FARTHER SOUTH WITH SKC...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE THE FAR TAF SITE. ONCE MIXING INCREASES BY MID MORNING ENTIRE FA SHOULD BECOME VFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...SPEICHER AVIATION...VOELKER