223 
FXUS61 KCAR 291428
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE
THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1027 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS TO
ADD MORE CLOUDS PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY & OBS SHOWING
CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FURTHER S
AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR W/THE HELP OF DOWNSLOPE W/A WNW WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
HALT THE WARMING INITIALLY. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS OF MID/UPPER
30S NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S CENTRAL TO DOWNEAST
RESPECTIVELY. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC...A SPRAWLING AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE 
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT.

ALOFT...A FAST FLOW PER THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WITH A 110+ KNOT JET 
AT 300 MILLIBARS.  THIS JET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY 
LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE HUDSON STRAIT THROUGH 
TONIGHT.  A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE 
EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT.  THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS THE 
COLDEST OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A 850 MB TEMP OF -9C LAST EVENING. 

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...A SUNNY AND COLD DAY EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE SJV WHERE SOME AREAS PICKED UP
4 INCHES OF SNOW YESTERDAY. GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY TO ABOUT
850 MILLIBARS PER THE SYNTHETIC SOUNDINGS. EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK
UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...WITH A BIT LESS WIND FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RAPIDLY DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH THE WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND IN MANY CASES CALM. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO
BECOME THICK ENOUGH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH... IN THE
20S DOWNEAST...AND NEAR 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA 
EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE LATE 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS 
WEDNESDAY THEN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
THEN QUICKLY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND A SOUTHERLY WIND BEGINS TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN BE WINDY, MISTY AND MILD WITH RAIN AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST UP INTO QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH WITH A BIT LESS
DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION PULLS A COLD FRONT TOWARD 
THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE 
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. BY 
SATURDAY ONE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ANOTHER 
ARCTIC COLD FRONT DIVIDING MILD AIR OVER OUR REGION FROM MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH, WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH. A FAST MOVING,
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY MAY BRING
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD FOR NOVEMBER. AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH
SOME SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY AND THEN WILL BE IFR IN
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.  
THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. 

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A GALE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
OVER 10 FT THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FIRST ONE INCH SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU
YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE (1981-2010 NORMALS) THE DATE OF THE FIRST 
1 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU IS NOVEMBER 9TH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER/HEWITT
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER/HEWITT
CLIMATE...BOGEL