223 FXUS61 KCAR 291428 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1027 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY CONDITIONS TO ADD MORE CLOUDS PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY & OBS SHOWING CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FURTHER S AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR W/THE HELP OF DOWNSLOPE W/A WNW WIND. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO HALT THE WARMING INITIALLY. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS OF MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S CENTRAL TO DOWNEAST RESPECTIVELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC...A SPRAWLING AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ALOFT...A FAST FLOW PER THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WITH A 110+ KNOT JET AT 300 MILLIBARS. THIS JET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE HUDSON STRAIT THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS THE COLDEST OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A 850 MB TEMP OF -9C LAST EVENING. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...A SUNNY AND COLD DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE SJV WHERE SOME AREAS PICKED UP 4 INCHES OF SNOW YESTERDAY. GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY TO ABOUT 850 MILLIBARS PER THE SYNTHETIC SOUNDINGS. EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A BIT LESS WIND FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND IN MANY CASES CALM. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO BECOME THICK ENOUGH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF AND PERHAPS EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A DRY AND COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH... IN THE 20S DOWNEAST...AND NEAR 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY THEN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHERLY WIND BEGINS TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE WINDY, MISTY AND MILD WITH RAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST UP INTO QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH WITH A BIT LESS DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION PULLS A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY ONE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT DIVIDING MILD AIR OVER OUR REGION FROM MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH, WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH. A FAST MOVING, WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD FOR NOVEMBER. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY AND THEN WILL BE IFR IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GALE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WEST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 10 FT THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS. && .CLIMATE... THE FIRST ONE INCH SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE (1981-2010 NORMALS) THE DATE OF THE FIRST 1 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU IS NOVEMBER 9TH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER/HEWITT MARINE...CB/BLOOMER/HEWITT CLIMATE...BOGEL