254 
FXUS61 KBGM 160542
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN FOCUS TODAY REMAINS ON
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH 04Z MANUAL SFC ANALYSIS
PLACING THIS FEATURE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO.
LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA
REMAINS READILY APPARENT ON CANADIAN RADARS THIS MORNING. THAT
SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z AS TIME WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS FEATURE TO APPROACH OUR AREA. BEYOND THIS...SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST BEFORE WASHING OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...HAVE DRAWN HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE TODAY...WITH THE SUGGESTION THAT
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN MAY DECREASE TEMPORARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE REIGNITING LATER THIS EVENING AS MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA STANDING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIP AS GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH DECENT
PVA ALOFT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT AS FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION ONLY SHOW MINIMAL CAPE VALUES AND
VERY LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT REQUIRED CHARGE
SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.

1035 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST STILL IN EXCELLENT SHAPE JUST
BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY AS INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH COOLING.

750 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL BE IN ENOUGH CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TONIGHT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
WILL KEEP US MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE
50S. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TOWARD THE POCONOS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WHICH WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN
THE NIGHT VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE. THIS MAY PREVENT CLOUDS
FROM MAKING A HUGE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA DUE TO THIS
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA NOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A
BKN TO SCT LINE OF SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN LOW CHANCE AS THIS
LINE DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. AS HAS BEEN WELL
ADVERTISED...A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT RAIN COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF. CONTINUED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THUNDER...MAINLY NY COUNTIES...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 300 J/KG DURING
THE EVENING.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN THE WEST...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE FREQUENT
SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION...WHILE GRADUALLY "COOLING" BACK TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DRIER WEATHER MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM TUE UPDATE... WE'VE BASICALLY POPULATED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE...AND THIS REPRESENTS RELATIVELY LTL CHG FROM OUR
PREVIOUS UPDATE.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TWDS A FULL LAT WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ERN NOAM RIDGE IS STILL BEING SHOWN THIS PD. IN
REALITY...WE THINK THAT ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO NY/PA UNDER SUCH A FLOW REGIME...THIS
COOLER AMS WILL COME IN PIECES...AS SVRL S/WVS PASS THROUGH IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

ATTM...WE'RE STILL ADVERTISING A CHC OF SHWRS ON SAT...THEN
PERHAPS AGN EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON INTO TUE)...WITH FAST MOVG SFC
FRNTS. OTHWS...CONDS LOOK MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF ADDTNL
SHWR ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR NRN ZNS...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE. 

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH TIME...THEY'RE
STILL LIKELY TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID TO LATE OCT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM TUE UPDATE... 

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MID AT 10K
FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MARINE MOISTURE COMING NORTH INTO KAVP
AND THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. HAVE A 11 TO 15Z
TEMPO AT ELM AND BGM FOR A 2500 FT MVFR CIG. KELM MAY ALSO HAVE
MVFR VSBY VALLEY FOG SAME TIME. AT AVP MAY BE JUST ABOVE VFR OR
STAY SCT.

DURING THE AFTN OFF AND ON SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COME
INTO THE NY TAF SITES BUT SHOULD NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS OUT OF VFR.
EXCEPTION IS KITH WERE CIGS MAY DROP TO 2500 FT. AT KAVP SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. 

LIGHT E TO SE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WED EXCEPT SE
AT KRME. 

OUTLOOK... 

WED NGT INTO THU NGT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHOWERS. 

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-SUN...OCNL RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC