254 FXUS61 KBGM 160542 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 142 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE... FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN FOCUS TODAY REMAINS ON APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH 04Z MANUAL SFC ANALYSIS PLACING THIS FEATURE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA REMAINS READILY APPARENT ON CANADIAN RADARS THIS MORNING. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z AS TIME WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS FEATURE TO APPROACH OUR AREA. BEYOND THIS...SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST BEFORE WASHING OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...HAVE DRAWN HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE TODAY...WITH THE SUGGESTION THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN MAY DECREASE TEMPORARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE REIGNITING LATER THIS EVENING AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA STANDING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIP AS GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH DECENT PVA ALOFT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION ONLY SHOW MINIMAL CAPE VALUES AND VERY LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT REQUIRED CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY. 1035 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST STILL IN EXCELLENT SHAPE JUST BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY AS INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH COOLING. 750 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO CHANGES. 330 PM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL BE IN ENOUGH CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP US MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO FORM TOWARD THE POCONOS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WHICH WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE NIGHT VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE. THIS MAY PREVENT CLOUDS FROM MAKING A HUGE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA DUE TO THIS MARINE LAYER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 PM UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA NOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A BKN TO SCT LINE OF SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN LOW CHANCE AS THIS LINE DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED...A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT RAIN COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. CONTINUED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THUNDER...MAINLY NY COUNTIES...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 300 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN THE WEST...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE FREQUENT SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION...WHILE GRADUALLY "COOLING" BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DRIER WEATHER MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3 PM TUE UPDATE... WE'VE BASICALLY POPULATED WITH WPC GUIDANCE...AND THIS REPRESENTS RELATIVELY LTL CHG FROM OUR PREVIOUS UPDATE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TWDS A FULL LAT WEST COAST TROUGH AND ERN NOAM RIDGE IS STILL BEING SHOWN THIS PD. IN REALITY...WE THINK THAT ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO NY/PA UNDER SUCH A FLOW REGIME...THIS COOLER AMS WILL COME IN PIECES...AS SVRL S/WVS PASS THROUGH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ATTM...WE'RE STILL ADVERTISING A CHC OF SHWRS ON SAT...THEN PERHAPS AGN EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON INTO TUE)...WITH FAST MOVG SFC FRNTS. OTHWS...CONDS LOOK MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF ADDTNL SHWR ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR NRN ZNS...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH TIME...THEY'RE STILL LIKELY TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID TO LATE OCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S). && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 730 PM TUE UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MID AT 10K FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MARINE MOISTURE COMING NORTH INTO KAVP AND THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. HAVE A 11 TO 15Z TEMPO AT ELM AND BGM FOR A 2500 FT MVFR CIG. KELM MAY ALSO HAVE MVFR VSBY VALLEY FOG SAME TIME. AT AVP MAY BE JUST ABOVE VFR OR STAY SCT. DURING THE AFTN OFF AND ON SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COME INTO THE NY TAF SITES BUT SHOULD NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS OUT OF VFR. EXCEPTION IS KITH WERE CIGS MAY DROP TO 2500 FT. AT KAVP SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. LIGHT E TO SE TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WED EXCEPT SE AT KRME. OUTLOOK... WED NGT INTO THU NGT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHOWERS. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...OCNL RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL IN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG/HEDEN NEAR TERM...CMG/HEDEN/RRM SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...TAC