979 
FXUS64 KMEG 060855
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING
THE MIDSOUTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE.
MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE DAY.

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH MIDDLE
50S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE HOVERING GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  

TONIGHT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE COOLEST READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
HERE...SOME MIDDLE 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE LOW 50S. 

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN FALL LIKE
WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDWEEK. THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WE SEEM TO HAVE BEEN IN A 7 DAY WEATHER CYCLE FOR THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEK. EXPECT
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG WEATHER MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT FRONT/STORM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A
WEAKER SYSTEM THAT IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE NEXT SYSTEM. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO ADD ANY HAZARDS TO
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER AND WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHRAS AND
SCT TSRAS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDS ARE MAINLY VFR. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL DROP TO OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KJBR AND IFR CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THERE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KMEM AROUND 06Z...KMKL BY 09Z AND KTUP AROUND 12Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS TO W/NW AT 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY TSRAS INVOF THE FRONT.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY SUN MORNING BACK TO VFR...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  51  72  51 /  50  10   0   0 
MKL  69  44  70  44 /  70  10   0   0 
JBR  71  47  72  47 /  30  10   0   0 
TUP  73  49  75  48 /  90  10   0   0 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$