979 FXUS64 KMEG 060855 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 355 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013 .DISCUSSION... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE MIDSOUTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE DAY. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE HOVERING GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TONIGHT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE COOLEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HERE...SOME MIDDLE 40S ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN FALL LIKE WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDWEEK. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WE SEEM TO HAVE BEEN IN A 7 DAY WEATHER CYCLE FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG WEATHER MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT/STORM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO ADD ANY HAZARDS TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDS ARE MAINLY VFR. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DROP TO OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KJBR AND IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THERE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMEM AROUND 06Z...KMKL BY 09Z AND KTUP AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS TO W/NW AT 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY TSRAS INVOF THE FRONT. CONDS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY SUN MORNING BACK TO VFR...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SJM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 71 51 72 51 / 50 10 0 0 MKL 69 44 70 44 / 70 10 0 0 JBR 71 47 72 47 / 30 10 0 0 TUP 73 49 75 48 / 90 10 0 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$