986 
FXUS64 KLUB 012330 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THESE COULD
TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND 
A DISTURBANCE EJECTING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL 
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR 
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP STILL IN A FEW HARD TO DEFINE 
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS MAY SUBSIDE AND DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS MAINLY ON 
THE CAP-ROCK. THEN...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS 
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. DRY AIRMASS WITH LIMITED OR NO CLOUD COVER 
EXPECTED. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY AREA OF FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE 
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW... AND THE ARRIVAL OF 
WHAT WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO THIS POINT IN 
THE FALL SEASON.  

BEFORE THIS OCCURS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A SURFACE 
LOW WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO 
THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW.  AS A 
RESULT...THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST 
TO SOUTH WINDS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20 MPH. BY FRIDAY... THE OFT
MENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY SHEARING APART
AS A SOUTHERN LOBE OF ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO DETACH FROM THE PRIMARY
TROUGH AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS.
THIS WILL ERODE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE AREA... AND IN
TURN HELP TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
IMPENDING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE EVENING. SPEAKING OF WHICH...
THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS... AS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHUNT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE RESULT OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO KEEP POPS
SILENT...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO
THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS THE FRONT WOULD BE MORE APT TO ENCOUNTER SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LUBBOCK CWA BEFORE IT GETS SHOVED TOO FAR TO
THE EAST.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FORECAST SHIFTS AWAY FROM 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE 
VERY DRY.  RATHER...THE PRIMARY POINTS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS THAT WILL FLIRT 
WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.  CURRENT 
PROGS SUGGEST THAT 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 11 MB OR SO WILL HELP TO 
DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AND LIKEWISE 
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  WHILE THERE ISN'T OVERWHELMING 
EVIDENCE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THIS TIME... SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR 
A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OR SO.  MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPERATURES THE 
FOLLOWING MORNING WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AS THE RESULT OF 
PLUMMETING THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH THE 
PERSISTENCE OF BREEZY WINDS AND POOR DECOUPLING MAY KEEP VALUES FROM 
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.  EITHER WAY... LOWS IN THE FAVORED 
REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING 
MARK SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 
WELL... AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO 
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO...WITH 
ONLY MARGINAL INCREASES IN THICKNESSES.  HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL 
BE COOLEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO 
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...TO PERHAPS 
BARELY TOUCHING 70 IN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.  AS THE UPPER 
WAVE FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT 
APPEARS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA AND 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH 
ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW RATE OF MOISTURE 
RETURN.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND 
EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE EITHER COMPLETELY ELIMINATED THIS POSSIBILITY OR 
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ITS STRENGTH...AND THIS SCENARIO NOW APPEARS 
SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  91  47  88  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         56  92  55  90  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     58  92  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     55  92  55  92  57 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       59  92  59  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   56  92  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    56  92  60  92  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     63  91  63  95  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          59  93  62  94  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     64  93  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$