986 FXUS64 KLUB 012330 AAA AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THESE COULD TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/ SHORT TERM... LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A DISTURBANCE EJECTING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR MILD AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP STILL IN A FEW HARD TO DEFINE LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS MAY SUBSIDE AND DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS MAINLY ON THE CAP-ROCK. THEN...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. DRY AIRMASS WITH LIMITED OR NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RMCQUEEN LONG TERM... THE PRIMARY AREA OF FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW... AND THE ARRIVAL OF WHAT WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO THIS POINT IN THE FALL SEASON. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS CLIMBING TO AROUND 20 MPH. BY FRIDAY... THE OFT MENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY SHEARING APART AS A SOUTHERN LOBE OF ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO DETACH FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL ERODE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE AREA... AND IN TURN HELP TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE EVENING. SPEAKING OF WHICH... THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS... AS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHUNT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE RESULT OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE FRONT WOULD BE MORE APT TO ENCOUNTER SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE LUBBOCK CWA BEFORE IT GETS SHOVED TOO FAR TO THE EAST. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FORECAST SHIFTS AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY. RATHER...THE PRIMARY POINTS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS THAT WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 11 MB OR SO WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AND LIKEWISE CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THERE ISN'T OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THIS TIME... SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OR SO. MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPERATURES THE FOLLOWING MORNING WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AS THE RESULT OF PLUMMETING THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENCE OF BREEZY WINDS AND POOR DECOUPLING MAY KEEP VALUES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY... LOWS IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL... AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INCREASES IN THICKNESSES. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...TO PERHAPS BARELY TOUCHING 70 IN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW RATE OF MOISTURE RETURN. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE EITHER COMPLETELY ELIMINATED THIS POSSIBILITY OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ITS STRENGTH...AND THIS SCENARIO NOW APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 52 91 47 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 56 92 55 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 58 92 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 55 92 55 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 59 92 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 56 92 57 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 56 92 60 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 63 91 63 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 59 93 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 64 93 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$