244 
FXUS61 KBTV 180538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
REGIONAL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...INTO MID AND LATE WEEK...MORE OF THE
SAME AS DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH 300 MB
DOMINATES REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL
WEATHER AND JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME BY WED
NIGHT ONWARD. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFFSHORE
OVER TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR
SO SUCH THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD MAX OUT WELL INTO THE 60S
TOMORROW...AND INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY AND SFC
COLD FRNT PUSHES INTO THE NE CONUS. A STRONG 85H JET OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS BTWN 12 AND
14C...WHICH WL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOWER
80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. ANTICIPATE A VERY MILD NIGHT
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLW AND INCREASE CLOUDS
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S MTN VALLEYS TO 60S CPV/SLV. HAVE MADE
SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SAT-SUN TIME PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO
POPS AND TIMING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN ENHANCED RIBBON OF
850 TO 500MB MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ACRS OUR
CWA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY. ALSO...THINKING A BIT SLOWER IN FROPA TIMING GIVEN THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACRS THE NE
CONUS...BEFORE TROF ARRIVES...THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP BY 4 TO 8 HRS. ALSO...WITH SFC BOUNDARY PARALLELING
MID/UPPER LVL FLW AND S/W ENERGY LIFTING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA...SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME. STILL THINKING
A GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.50" OF QPF WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS PWS APPROACH 1.75" AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND LLVL CAA ON
SUNDAY BEHIND BOUNDARY...MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION CHC POPS
ATTM...WITH TEMPS SLILGHTLY BLW NORMAL. THIS TREND OF BLW NORMAL
TEMPS WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE RIDGE REDEVELOPS AND
WARMER TEMPS RETURN BY MID WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BTWN
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH POSITION
OF DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND POTENTIAL CLOSED
5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA. WL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S TO L/M 70S ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MPV AND SLK STARTING BETWEEN 06-07Z. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICENT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT SLK (SOUTHWEST
15-17KTS AT 2-3KFT) TO MAKE ASSOCIATED LIFR VISIBILITIES MORE
SPORADIC/TRANSIENT. THEREFORE I HAVE ONLY TEMPO'D IN FOG AT SLK.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG BURNS
OFF BY EARLY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-8KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF DAILY
FOG/BR BTWN 07-12Z AT SLK/MPV. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY WL PRODUCE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44...
BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE ARRIVED
AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS STARTED TODAY. THIS WORK SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-006>008-
     010-012-016-017.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV