244 FXUS61 KBTV 180538 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES REGIONAL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 138 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...INTO MID AND LATE WEEK...MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH 300 MB DOMINATES REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER AND JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME BY WED NIGHT ONWARD. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFFSHORE OVER TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO SUCH THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD MAX OUT WELL INTO THE 60S TOMORROW...AND INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRNT PUSHES INTO THE NE CONUS. A STRONG 85H JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS BTWN 12 AND 14C...WHICH WL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. ANTICIPATE A VERY MILD NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLW AND INCREASE CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S MTN VALLEYS TO 60S CPV/SLV. HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SAT-SUN TIME PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO POPS AND TIMING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN ENHANCED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ACRS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. ALSO...THINKING A BIT SLOWER IN FROPA TIMING GIVEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACRS THE NE CONUS...BEFORE TROF ARRIVES...THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BY 4 TO 8 HRS. ALSO...WITH SFC BOUNDARY PARALLELING MID/UPPER LVL FLW AND S/W ENERGY LIFTING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME. STILL THINKING A GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.50" OF QPF WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS PWS APPROACH 1.75" AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND LLVL CAA ON SUNDAY BEHIND BOUNDARY...MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM...WITH TEMPS SLILGHTLY BLW NORMAL. THIS TREND OF BLW NORMAL TEMPS WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE RIDGE REDEVELOPS AND WARMER TEMPS RETURN BY MID WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BTWN GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH POSITION OF DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND POTENTIAL CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA. WL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S TO L/M 70S ATTM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MPV AND SLK STARTING BETWEEN 06-07Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICENT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT SLK (SOUTHWEST 15-17KTS AT 2-3KFT) TO MAKE ASSOCIATED LIFR VISIBILITIES MORE SPORADIC/TRANSIENT. THEREFORE I HAVE ONLY TEMPO'D IN FOG AT SLK. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AFTER FOG BURNS OFF BY EARLY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-8KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF DAILY FOG/BR BTWN 07-12Z AT SLK/MPV. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY WL PRODUCE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44... BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE ARRIVED AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS STARTED TODAY. THIS WORK SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-006>008- 010-012-016-017. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV