852 
FXUS64 KBMX 161220
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY'S PACKAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO THROW ANY SURPRISES OUR WAY OR
ADD ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT A FEW
MODELS INTRODUCE A CHANCE THAT SOME ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WRAPS IT'S WAY AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARD US BY THE
WEEKEND. WILL TAKE A MIXTURE OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST AND LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
IDEAS PROPOSED FROM PREVIOUS GFS/ENSEMBLE/ECMWF MODEL RUNS.

WE ACTUALLY GOT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FAR SOUTHEAST
YESTERDAY. AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT IN THE VICINITY...
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FAR SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THAT SMALL MENTION SOUTHEAST TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED JUST WEST...
THIS FRONT WILL GLANCE THE REGION AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
NORTHWEST ORIENTED. THEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD AND INCREASES
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EVOLUTION IS MORE INDICATIVE OF
MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN CURRENT ONES. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ALL MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE
A BIT SLOWER AND WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS TO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND
LOOK FOR ONE OF THESE PERIODS POPS TO BE INCREASED AS WE APPROACH
NEXT WEEKEND. 

NO EXTREMES ON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME MVFR VIS WAS BEING OBSERVED AT KMGM AND KTOI EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF
VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE NECESSARY. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  62  84  64  83 /   0   0  20  10  30 
ANNISTON    88  64  84  65  83 /   0   0  20  10  30 
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  88  68  82 /   0   0  20  10  30 
TUSCALOOSA  92  64  90  69  87 /   0   0  20  10  20 
CALERA      90  65  87  66  82 /   0   0  20  10  20 
AUBURN      87  65  85  63  80 /  10   0  20  10  20 
MONTGOMERY  93  66  92  68  86 /  10   0  20  10  20 
TROY        92  67  90  67  87 /  10  10  20  10  20 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$