852 FXUS64 KBMX 161220 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 720 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY'S PACKAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO THROW ANY SURPRISES OUR WAY OR ADD ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT A FEW MODELS INTRODUCE A CHANCE THAT SOME ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS IT'S WAY AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARD US BY THE WEEKEND. WILL TAKE A MIXTURE OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AND LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED WITH IDEAS PROPOSED FROM PREVIOUS GFS/ENSEMBLE/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. WE ACTUALLY GOT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FAR SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY. AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT IN THE VICINITY... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FAR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THAT SMALL MENTION SOUTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED JUST WEST... THIS FRONT WILL GLANCE THE REGION AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST NORTHWEST ORIENTED. THEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD AND INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EVOLUTION IS MORE INDICATIVE OF MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN CURRENT ONES. THEREFORE... WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ALL MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE A BIT SLOWER AND WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS TO SATURDAY/SUNDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOOK FOR ONE OF THESE PERIODS POPS TO BE INCREASED AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. NO EXTREMES ON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER. 75 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. SOME MVFR VIS WAS BEING OBSERVED AT KMGM AND KTOI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE NECESSARY. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 56/GDG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 86 62 84 64 83 / 0 0 20 10 30 ANNISTON 88 64 84 65 83 / 0 0 20 10 30 BIRMINGHAM 89 65 88 68 82 / 0 0 20 10 30 TUSCALOOSA 92 64 90 69 87 / 0 0 20 10 20 CALERA 90 65 87 66 82 / 0 0 20 10 20 AUBURN 87 65 85 63 80 / 10 0 20 10 20 MONTGOMERY 93 66 92 68 86 / 10 0 20 10 20 TROY 92 67 90 67 87 / 10 10 20 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$