961 
FXUS66 KOTX 090348
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
848 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather Thursday night will be followed by increased clouds
and a threat of precipitation Friday. From Friday evening through
much of next week a persistent weather pattern will bring a chance
of thunderstorms each day with temperatures remaining seasonably
warm.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: increased cloud cover across the region. For the
most part these are middle and higher clouds coming in from the
south but they seem relatively thick. Minor tweaks made the
shower/thunderstorm chances through the next 24 hours. Decreased
them about the eastern mountains tonight. I also adjusted PoPs for
Friday afternoon and early evening, attempting to show the better
threat of showers/thunderstorms starting from the south in the
later afternoon. For much of the Inland Northwest, it will not be
until late Friday or Friday evening that the chance of thunderstorms
arrives and it continues through the weekend.

It is important to note that the main low and the best forcing (or
lift) is expected further south and west of the region. Impulses
riding around the east side of that low, although not the deepest
lift, will still interact with instability to bring the threat of
thunderstorms.

Depending on how these evolve, some will have the opportunity for
more persist activity or heavier precipitation amounts than others.
In fact some areas may be missed altogether. Right now it appears
some of the higher/steeper sloped terrain, as well as portion of
the Okanogan Valley through Waterville Plateau, may see those more
numerous waves of showers/thunderstorms...at least looking at the
cumulative precipitation amounts models paint. So we will have to
monitor these areas for possible flooding, especially the burn
scar near the Cascades and west and south of Wenatchee, and the
steeper terrain.

Right now models depict the first threat developing around the
Cascades, as well across Oregon through central Idaho during the
early to mid-afternoon. Models depict this latter area of
showers/thunderstorms propagating north into eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle. Some of these may carry locally heavy
rain, perhaps some small hail, gusty winds. But the quandary is how
quickly and how far north they travel before weakening. And
initially some of these may not carry much precipitation, which is
part of why we have the Fire Weather Watches for abundant
lightning in place.

Additional impulses come around the low overnight Friday and
Saturday evening, but some models suggest these may track closer
to the Cascades and provide that more numerous waves of
precipitation in this region. But all areas will remain under the
threat of showers/thunderstorms through at least the weekend. 

It is a mushy pattern, where some areas may get drenched while
someone two blocks away gets nothing and wonders "what the hype
was all about". /J. Cote'

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure continues to promote VFR conditions with
mostly light and diurnal winds and scattered high clouds through
the next 12-18 hours. Clouds will begin to thicken by midday to
early afternoon Friday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
entering. The primary threat will be around the mountains and
southeast WA and in the vcnty of KLWS and KPUW. By late Friday
(esp after 00Z Saturday) the threat of shower/thunderstorms comes
to much of the region. /J. Cote'



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  92  66  91  65  88 /  10  10  20  20  20  50 
Coeur d'Alene  59  91  61  90  60  88 /  10  10  20  20  20  50 
Pullman        54  91  55  89  55  87 /  10  30  30  20  30  30 
Lewiston       65  98  66  96  65  94 /  10  20  30  20  30  30 
Colville       56  95  58  93  57  92 /  10  10  20  20  20  40 
Sandpoint      54  89  57  88  55  86 /  10  10  20  30  30  50 
Kellogg        58  90  59  88  58  86 /  10  20  30  20  20  50 
Moses Lake     63  96  65  95  64  93 /  10  10  30  30  30  30 
Wenatchee      68  95  70  94  69  93 /  10  10  30  40  40  40 
Omak           63  97  66  96  64  95 /  10  10  20  40  40  40 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone
     682)- East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-
     East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)- East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East Washington Palouse 
     and Spokane Area (Zone 674)-East Washington South Central
     Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington South Central
     Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$