961 FXUS66 KOTX 090348 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 848 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather Thursday night will be followed by increased clouds and a threat of precipitation Friday. From Friday evening through much of next week a persistent weather pattern will bring a chance of thunderstorms each day with temperatures remaining seasonably warm. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: increased cloud cover across the region. For the most part these are middle and higher clouds coming in from the south but they seem relatively thick. Minor tweaks made the shower/thunderstorm chances through the next 24 hours. Decreased them about the eastern mountains tonight. I also adjusted PoPs for Friday afternoon and early evening, attempting to show the better threat of showers/thunderstorms starting from the south in the later afternoon. For much of the Inland Northwest, it will not be until late Friday or Friday evening that the chance of thunderstorms arrives and it continues through the weekend. It is important to note that the main low and the best forcing (or lift) is expected further south and west of the region. Impulses riding around the east side of that low, although not the deepest lift, will still interact with instability to bring the threat of thunderstorms. Depending on how these evolve, some will have the opportunity for more persist activity or heavier precipitation amounts than others. In fact some areas may be missed altogether. Right now it appears some of the higher/steeper sloped terrain, as well as portion of the Okanogan Valley through Waterville Plateau, may see those more numerous waves of showers/thunderstorms...at least looking at the cumulative precipitation amounts models paint. So we will have to monitor these areas for possible flooding, especially the burn scar near the Cascades and west and south of Wenatchee, and the steeper terrain. Right now models depict the first threat developing around the Cascades, as well across Oregon through central Idaho during the early to mid-afternoon. Models depict this latter area of showers/thunderstorms propagating north into eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Some of these may carry locally heavy rain, perhaps some small hail, gusty winds. But the quandary is how quickly and how far north they travel before weakening. And initially some of these may not carry much precipitation, which is part of why we have the Fire Weather Watches for abundant lightning in place. Additional impulses come around the low overnight Friday and Saturday evening, but some models suggest these may track closer to the Cascades and provide that more numerous waves of precipitation in this region. But all areas will remain under the threat of showers/thunderstorms through at least the weekend. It is a mushy pattern, where some areas may get drenched while someone two blocks away gets nothing and wonders "what the hype was all about". /J. Cote' && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure continues to promote VFR conditions with mostly light and diurnal winds and scattered high clouds through the next 12-18 hours. Clouds will begin to thicken by midday to early afternoon Friday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms entering. The primary threat will be around the mountains and southeast WA and in the vcnty of KLWS and KPUW. By late Friday (esp after 00Z Saturday) the threat of shower/thunderstorms comes to much of the region. /J. Cote' && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 92 66 91 65 88 / 10 10 20 20 20 50 Coeur d'Alene 59 91 61 90 60 88 / 10 10 20 20 20 50 Pullman 54 91 55 89 55 87 / 10 30 30 20 30 30 Lewiston 65 98 66 96 65 94 / 10 20 30 20 30 30 Colville 56 95 58 93 57 92 / 10 10 20 20 20 40 Sandpoint 54 89 57 88 55 86 / 10 10 20 30 30 50 Kellogg 58 90 59 88 58 86 / 10 20 30 20 20 50 Moses Lake 63 96 65 95 64 93 / 10 10 30 30 30 30 Wenatchee 68 95 70 94 69 93 / 10 10 30 40 40 40 Omak 63 97 66 96 64 95 / 10 10 20 40 40 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID... WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for East Washington Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 682)- East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)- East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)- East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684)-East Washington Palouse and Spokane Area (Zone 674)-East Washington South Central Cascade Mountains (Zone 680)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676). && $$