083 
FXUS62 KJAX 110147
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY HAS COME QUICKLY TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST 
OF IT BEING TRIGGERED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS 
ACROSS MARION COUNTY THAT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIR 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S 
INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

A MORE ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT/TROF PUSHES 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PUSHES TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL 
SUPPORT A MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM REGIME BY THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS BECOME ACTIVE 
AND PUSH INLAND. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW WITH STORM 
MOVEMENT N/NE AT 10 MPH OR LESS AND THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD 
COLLISION OF SEA BREEZE FRONTS OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL KICK OFF 
A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM 
MICROBURSTS AND ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SLOW ENOUGH STORM MOTION 
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS 
EVENING...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT 
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ TOWARD DAWN. A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS 
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION 
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS AND 
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE TONIGHT 
AND 3-5 FT RANGE THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO 
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  73  87 /  10  70  70  70 
SSI  77  87  75  85 /   0  50  60  60 
JAX  73  91  73  88 /  10  60  60  70 
SGJ  74  88  74  87 /  10  50  50  60 
GNV  71  90  71  90 /  20  60  50  60 
OCF  71  91  72  90 /  30  60  50  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/MCALLISTER