974 
FXUS61 KPHI 040758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY CROSS THE AREA AROUND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THIS DATE 237 YEARS AGO, THE WEATHER IN PHILADELPHIA WAS QUITE A 
BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE 
AROUND 700 AM WAS 65.5 DEGREES UNDER A FAIR SKY WITH A NORTHERLY 
WIND. THE TEMPERATURE AROUND 300 PM WAS ONLY 74 DEGREES UNDER A 
CLOUDY SKY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND. THESE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE 
FROM THE JOURNAL OF ISRAEL (PHINEAS) PEMBERTON (COURTESY OF THE 
AMERICAN PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY LIBRARY).

AT 330 AM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND 
MIDDLE 70S WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. PATCHY LOW 
CLOUDS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING. THE LACK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE TO MIX AND ERODE 
WHATEVER DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND IT WILL GAIN A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR 
REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MAIN 
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED TO THE WEST AND IT SHOULD 
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO 
RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL MENTION A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE 
POCONOS, BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW 
JERSEY. WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS TO THE 
SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED BRIEF BLIP OR TWO ON THE RADAR 
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE BUT 
THE POTENTIAL IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE 
FORECAST.

TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 
90 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN 
THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. WHERE 
THE TEMPERATURE REACHES 90, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 
IN THE 94 TO 96 RANGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION TONIGHT. NO 
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID 
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, LIGHT 
FOG AND HAZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE
MID-ATLC COAST FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AND MAY EVEN MOVE WWD THRU THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDD FCST. THIS HIGH WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
WX TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO PSBLY
MID 90S OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH DEW POINTS RIGHT AROUND 70,
IT WILL BE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE. WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE
GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAIN, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ONGOING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE RH AND THE
UNPLEASANT FEELING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ATTM, SAT LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AND
WOULD BE THE DAY MOST LIKELY IN NEED OF ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE.  

THE LATEST TEMP GUID CAME IN A BIT COOLER ON SUN, AND IF THIS
VERIFIES WE MAY NOT END UP WITH A 6 DAY HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL, A
STRING OF SUMMER-LIKE WX IS IN STORE. 

WITH THE HIGH BUILDING CLOSER TO US ON FRI AND INTO SAT, ITS PSBL
WE CAN HAVE 2 DRY OR MOSTLY DRY DAYS, SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN AT A
PREMIUM LATELY, EVEN THOUGH A POP UP SHWR OR TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER AFTN, WITH THE BETTER CHC ON SAT. FRI STILL APPEARS THE
BEST CHC TO BE TOTALLY DRY!

BY SUN, A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND THIS WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS BY AFTN. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF BEING THE WETTEST DAY OF THE NEXT FIVE. A WEAK CDFNT MAY MOVE
THRU ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FROPA ON TUE. BOTH FRONTS
COUPLED WITH THE HEAT COULD CAUSE SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS,
SO LOW POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.  


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0730Z, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING IN OUR REGION. 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THEIR POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS UNTIL ABOUT 
1400Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING 
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER 
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THEREFORE, 
THEIR MENTION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION IS EVEN LOWER THAN WHAT 
IS EXPECTED AROUND KRDG AND KABE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE 
OCEAN.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY 
BE GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER DARK.


OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MORNING FOG. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS
APPEARS TO BE ON SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
WESTWARD DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEAS SHOULD BE IN THE 3-4 FEET AND WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR LOCAL EQUATIONS FORECAST A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE 
COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, BASED ON 
RECENT TRENDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR THE 
JERSEY SHORE. WE WILL KEEP THE DELAWARE BEACHES AT A LOW RISK BASED 
ON THE EXPECTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ALONG WITH A 6 TO 7 SECOND 
PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...