974 FXUS61 KPHI 040758 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 358 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA AROUND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ON THIS DATE 237 YEARS AGO, THE WEATHER IN PHILADELPHIA WAS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE AROUND 700 AM WAS 65.5 DEGREES UNDER A FAIR SKY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. THE TEMPERATURE AROUND 300 PM WAS ONLY 74 DEGREES UNDER A CLOUDY SKY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND. THESE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE FROM THE JOURNAL OF ISRAEL (PHINEAS) PEMBERTON (COURTESY OF THE AMERICAN PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY LIBRARY). AT 330 AM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING. THE LACK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE TO MIX AND ERODE WHATEVER DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD AND IT WILL GAIN A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED TO THE WEST AND IT SHOULD SPEND MOST OF THE DAY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE POCONOS, BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED BRIEF BLIP OR TWO ON THE RADAR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE BUT THE POTENTIAL IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REACHES 90, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 94 TO 96 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, LIGHT FOG AND HAZE AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AND MAY EVEN MOVE WWD THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDD FCST. THIS HIGH WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID WX TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO PSBLY MID 90S OVER MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH DEW POINTS RIGHT AROUND 70, IT WILL BE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE. WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAIN, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ONGOING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO THE RH AND THE UNPLEASANT FEELING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ATTM, SAT LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AND WOULD BE THE DAY MOST LIKELY IN NEED OF ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE. THE LATEST TEMP GUID CAME IN A BIT COOLER ON SUN, AND IF THIS VERIFIES WE MAY NOT END UP WITH A 6 DAY HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL, A STRING OF SUMMER-LIKE WX IS IN STORE. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING CLOSER TO US ON FRI AND INTO SAT, ITS PSBL WE CAN HAVE 2 DRY OR MOSTLY DRY DAYS, SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN AT A PREMIUM LATELY, EVEN THOUGH A POP UP SHWR OR TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER AFTN, WITH THE BETTER CHC ON SAT. FRI STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHC TO BE TOTALLY DRY! BY SUN, A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS BY AFTN. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING THE WETTEST DAY OF THE NEXT FIVE. A WEAK CDFNT MAY MOVE THRU ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FROPA ON TUE. BOTH FRONTS COUPLED WITH THE HEAT COULD CAUSE SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS, SO LOW POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AT 0730Z, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING IN OUR REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THEIR POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS UNTIL ABOUT 1400Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THEREFORE, THEIR MENTION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION IS EVEN LOWER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED AROUND KRDG AND KABE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE OCEAN. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER DARK. OUTLOOK... FRI THROUGH MON...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MORNING FOG. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS APPEARS TO BE ON SUN. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTLOOK... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD BE IN THE 3-4 FEET AND WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS. && .RIP CURRENTS... OUR LOCAL EQUATIONS FORECAST A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, BASED ON RECENT TRENDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. WE WILL KEEP THE DELAWARE BEACHES AT A LOW RISK BASED ON THE EXPECTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL ALONG WITH A 6 TO 7 SECOND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...