859 
FXUS64 KMEG 282307 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
 
JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/

IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS INDICATING
TWO COLD FRONTS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE FIRST
WAS LOCATED NEAR I40 AND WAS WEAKENING FURTHER...THE SECOND WAS
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI AND WAS HOLDING THE
CARDS OF A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
FORMED ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE PAST HOUR AND ARE QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY WANING
FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL EXIST.

LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A DRIER AIRMASS/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ON SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S...AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THE HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALSO
STAY IN THE 80S. LATER IN THE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CORN
BELT AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
THE MODELS TRACK THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TOWARDS OUR AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AS IMPULSES
DROP IN ON THE WEST SIDE. THIS WILL FORM A CLOSED 500MB LOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY ALONG WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER OUR AREA. CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE ATT...BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON LAPSE RATES NEAR THE LOW CENTER
OVERLAYED WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/POCKETS OF BETTER INSTABILITY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON STRONG STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PERIOD AND WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
COMFORTABLY TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
FILLING AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
12/13C UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO 17/18C BY FRIDAY. DAILY CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO SLOWLY REDUCE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL START CLIMBING BACK
TOWARDS 90F/AVERAGE. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES THIS PERIOD AS A
LIKELY CAP WILL START TO DEVELOP WHILE THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (29/00Z-30/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW-N WINDS TONIGHT 
DIMINISHING TO 4-5 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY NW-N 10-12 KTS. 

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  88  68  81 /  10  10  10  30 
MKL  64  85  63  79 /  10  10  10  40 
JBR  67  87  64  80 /  10  10  10  40 
TUP  69  90  66  83 /  10  10  10  30 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$