859 FXUS64 KMEG 282307 AAA AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 607 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. JCL && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS INDICATING TWO COLD FRONTS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED NEAR I40 AND WAS WEAKENING FURTHER...THE SECOND WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI AND WAS HOLDING THE CARDS OF A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE PAST HOUR AND ARE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY WANING FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST. LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A DRIER AIRMASS/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THE HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE 80S. LATER IN THE DAY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE MODELS TRACK THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TOWARDS OUR AREA. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AS IMPULSES DROP IN ON THE WEST SIDE. THIS WILL FORM A CLOSED 500MB LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY ALONG WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR AREA. CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE ATT...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON LAPSE RATES NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVERLAYED WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/POCKETS OF BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON STRONG STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD AND WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL COMFORTABLY TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE UPPER LOW FILLING AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12/13C UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO 17/18C BY FRIDAY. DAILY CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SLOWLY REDUCE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL START CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 90F/AVERAGE. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES THIS PERIOD AS A LIKELY CAP WILL START TO DEVELOP WHILE THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS. JAB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE (29/00Z-30/00Z) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW-N WINDS TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 4-5 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY NW-N 10-12 KTS. JCL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 70 88 68 81 / 10 10 10 30 MKL 64 85 63 79 / 10 10 10 40 JBR 67 87 64 80 / 10 10 10 40 TUP 69 90 66 83 / 10 10 10 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$