180 
FXUS63 KFGF 271158
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. CIRRUS AND SOME ALTOCU OVER
NRN MN INTO SRN ND AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR UPSTREAM FROM DVL
BASIN INTO SASK. 06Z MODELS CONTINUE SAME IDEA OF BRINGING UPPER
LOW IN EASTERN MANITOBA SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
TRW THIS AFTN IN NW MN. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST SOUTH AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS AFTN AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
NEEDED. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA NEAR BERENS RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TODAY TOWARD THE BOUNDARY WATER REGION ALONG MINNESOTA/ONTARIO
FOR TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE WHICH CAUSED SCT STORMS TO MOVE THRU NE
ND/NW MN AS MOVED EAST WITH STORMS NOW OVER NE MN. AS UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST EXPECT A RE-GENERATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NW MN IN COOL POCKET ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES IN REGION. WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF CHC
POPS HALLOCK-PARK RAPIDS NORTH AND EAST WITH REST OF THE FCST AREA
SEEING SOME DIURNAL CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WARM
TODAY...WITH MOST SITES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME POPS FOR ISOLD/SCT TRW IN NW MN THRU TONIGHT AS LIKE WED
NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LAST WELL PAST SUNSET DUE TO DYNAMICS
ALOFT. LOOKS BREEZY-WINDY TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KTS OR SO IN THE AFTN.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY SPREADING THE RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THOUGH MAIN CHC WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN.
LOOK FOR A DROP OF 2-4C IN 850 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASE IN
OVERAL CLOUD COVER FRI. THIS WILL GIVE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG
COOLER BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. ANOTHER BREEZY-
WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH FRI NIGHT-SAT AND
WILL KEEP RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS PD...WITH BEST
CHC IN MINNESOTA PART OF THE FCST AREA. BY LATE SAT MAIN THREAT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO CNTRL-SRN MN. WITH COOLING AT 850 MB SATURDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S.  

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH 00 UTC TUESDAY... DIVERGING THEREAFTER. BOTH SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THESE FEATURES WILL MERGE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS PAINTS AN OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR WETTER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED.

IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE 
COOL-SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE 
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. BIG STORY WILL BE EXPECTED GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE...WINDIEST IN THE
PRAIRIES. GOOD MIXING TODAY SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT 30 KTS WINDS TO
THE SFC IN GUSTS. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL. DID GO WITH VCTS IN BEMIDJI IN THE AFTN...BUT
TIMING IS QUITE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OUT. DID NOT INCLUDE TVF ATTM. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

ALL RIVERS AROUND FARGO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES IN THE LEVELS. IT 
APPEARS THAT THE RED AT FARGO WILL APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE WITHIN 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE 
CHANGE FOR THE FARGO FORECAST POINT. SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT 
POINTS DOWNSTREAM OF FARGO WILL ALSO APPROACH OR EXCEED MINOR FLOOD 
STAGE IN SEVERAL DAYS...FROM HALSTAD THROUGH OSLO MINNESOTA. AN 
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WILKIN AND RICHLAND 
COUNTIES...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CASS COUNTY.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RECEDED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS