180 FXUS63 KFGF 271158 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 658 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. CIRRUS AND SOME ALTOCU OVER NRN MN INTO SRN ND AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR UPSTREAM FROM DVL BASIN INTO SASK. 06Z MODELS CONTINUE SAME IDEA OF BRINGING UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MANITOBA SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TRW THIS AFTN IN NW MN. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST SOUTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS AFTN AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA NEAR BERENS RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE BOUNDARY WATER REGION ALONG MINNESOTA/ONTARIO FOR TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE WHICH CAUSED SCT STORMS TO MOVE THRU NE ND/NW MN AS MOVED EAST WITH STORMS NOW OVER NE MN. AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST EXPECT A RE-GENERATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN IN COOL POCKET ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES IN REGION. WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF CHC POPS HALLOCK-PARK RAPIDS NORTH AND EAST WITH REST OF THE FCST AREA SEEING SOME DIURNAL CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WARM TODAY...WITH MOST SITES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS FOR ISOLD/SCT TRW IN NW MN THRU TONIGHT AS LIKE WED NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LAST WELL PAST SUNSET DUE TO DYNAMICS ALOFT. LOOKS BREEZY-WINDY TODAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS OR SO IN THE AFTN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY SPREADING THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THOUGH MAIN CHC WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN. LOOK FOR A DROP OF 2-4C IN 850 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASE IN OVERAL CLOUD COVER FRI. THIS WILL GIVE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG COOLER BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. ANOTHER BREEZY- WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH FRI NIGHT-SAT AND WILL KEEP RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS PD...WITH BEST CHC IN MINNESOTA PART OF THE FCST AREA. BY LATE SAT MAIN THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO CNTRL-SRN MN. WITH COOLING AT 850 MB SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC TUESDAY... DIVERGING THEREAFTER. BOTH SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THESE FEATURES WILL MERGE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS PAINTS AN OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WETTER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. BIG STORY WILL BE EXPECTED GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE...WINDIEST IN THE PRAIRIES. GOOD MIXING TODAY SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT 30 KTS WINDS TO THE SFC IN GUSTS. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL. DID GO WITH VCTS IN BEMIDJI IN THE AFTN...BUT TIMING IS QUITE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OUT. DID NOT INCLUDE TVF ATTM. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 ALL RIVERS AROUND FARGO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES IN THE LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE RED AT FARGO WILL APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FARGO FORECAST POINT. SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT POINTS DOWNSTREAM OF FARGO WILL ALSO APPROACH OR EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE IN SEVERAL DAYS...FROM HALSTAD THROUGH OSLO MINNESOTA. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CASS COUNTY. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RECEDED BELOW ACTION STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS AVIATION...RIDDLE HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS