059 
FXUS61 KBGM 262028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER HIT AND MISS EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RAIN-
FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING UPR-LVL PV LOBE AND
LINGERING INSTAB/MOISTURE IS PRODUCING ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW STGR GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS...SPCLY OVER NE PA WITH BETTER DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...MUCH OF
THEM SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GARDEN VARIETY/NON-SVR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH...FROM NW TO SE...BY EARLY EVE (00-02Z).

LTR TNT...ONCE THE ATMOS STABILIZES...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY
CLR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING/SFC DEW PTS IN THE 60S/SOIL
MOISTURE...SHOULD ALL HELP PRODUCE AREAS OF VLY FOG LATE AT
NGT...INTO EARLY FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 PM UPDATE... A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATN IS EXPECTED...SPCLY EARLY ON.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE OH VLY/ERN LKS
RGN THU...BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ACRS NY/PA THU NGT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO ERN CANADA BY FRI/SAT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SPURRED ON BY
EXCELLENT UPR JET SUPPORT (DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE)...LEADING TO A PD
OF STG LIFTING FROM LTR THU AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF THU NGT. GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AMS HEADING NWD FROM THE MID-ATL RGN (PW'S AOA
2")...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/REGENERATING CELLS...AND THE ABV
MENTIONED PRONOUNCED UVM...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A
CONCERN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO HAS QUITE A FLOODING HISTORY
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACRS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY RGNS. THUS...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL OF CNY/NE PA...FROM THU
AFTN INTO FRI. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...MAIN STEM RIVER PTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB PROJECTED RAINFALL...BUT "FLASHIER" SMALLER
TRIBS COULD BE MORE AT RISK FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS. 

ALSO...THERE IS SOME RISK FOR SVR CONVECTION LTR IN THE DAY THU
INTO THE EARLY EVE. GIVEN A DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING POTENTIALLY
OVER OR JUST W OF THE FCST AREA...DEEP-LYRD SHEAR SHOULD BE
IMPROVING WITH TIME. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW UNSTABLE WILL WE
GET? GIVEN A SLOWER ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN (NOW NOT LIKELY
TIL LTR IN THE DAY)...WE THINK THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMT OF
SUNSHINE/SFC HTG INTO EARLY AFTN...PSBLY LEADING TO ML CAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBO OF CAPE/SHEAR COULD WELL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LOCALLY STG WINDS/HAIL...WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DVLP LATE
THU AFTN...IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER PCPN SHIELD/BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS BEEN PLACED INTO A SLGT
RISK...AND WE'VE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...ALG WITH THAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRI AND SAT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCTD IN NATURE...AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS THE BROADER AREA OF FORCED LIFT WKNS...AND
LIFTS TO OUR N AND E. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THIS PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 PM WED UPDATE... CONCERNS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK AS A STAGNANT NORTH-SOUTH
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN TRANSPORTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.
LATEST 12Z GEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE AN INCREASINGLY BLOCKY PATTERN WITH VERY AMPLIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ADDITIONAL
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...VERY DEEP TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WELL
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEEK. AS AN INDICATION OF
HOW ANOMALOUS THE DEVELOPING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE...LATEST
WPC EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS NOW SPEAKING OF POSSIBLE ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO US...PWAT ANOMALY GRAPHICS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWING STRONG TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF BOTH LOW
/MID-LEVEL AIR STREAMS WILL FUNNEL ITS WAY NORTH WITH TIME
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT. A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO EXACT DETAILS THIS FAR OUT BUT
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISO STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS HR ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK/NORTHEAST PA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE STARTED ELM AND BGM OFF WITH TEMPO THUNDER MENTION 
WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH WHERE IT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT AVP
BETWEEN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. BEYOND THIS...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID EVENING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL CENTRAL NEW YORK SITES
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WEAK
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS IN A
DECOUPLED ENVIRONMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 06Z. FOR NOW...HAVE HIT MOST CENTRAL NY
SITES WITH AN IFR MENTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEYOND 13Z. AT AVP...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PA
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINAL. FOR NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY OFFER AN MVFR MENTION
UNTIL DEGREE OF CLEARING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH SUN...

THU NGT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TERMINALS
IN POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN.

FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS. 

SAT/SUN/MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...CMG