059 FXUS61 KBGM 262028 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 428 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER HIT AND MISS EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RAIN- FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 4 PM UPDATE... THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING UPR-LVL PV LOBE AND LINGERING INSTAB/MOISTURE IS PRODUCING ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW STGR GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS...SPCLY OVER NE PA WITH BETTER DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...MUCH OF THEM SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GARDEN VARIETY/NON-SVR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH...FROM NW TO SE...BY EARLY EVE (00-02Z). LTR TNT...ONCE THE ATMOS STABILIZES...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING/SFC DEW PTS IN THE 60S/SOIL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALL HELP PRODUCE AREAS OF VLY FOG LATE AT NGT...INTO EARLY FRI. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 415 PM UPDATE... A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATN IS EXPECTED...SPCLY EARLY ON. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE OH VLY/ERN LKS RGN THU...BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ACRS NY/PA THU NGT...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ERN CANADA BY FRI/SAT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SPURRED ON BY EXCELLENT UPR JET SUPPORT (DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE)...LEADING TO A PD OF STG LIFTING FROM LTR THU AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF THU NGT. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AMS HEADING NWD FROM THE MID-ATL RGN (PW'S AOA 2")...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING/REGENERATING CELLS...AND THE ABV MENTIONED PRONOUNCED UVM...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO HAS QUITE A FLOODING HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACRS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY RGNS. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL OF CNY/NE PA...FROM THU AFTN INTO FRI. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...MAIN STEM RIVER PTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB PROJECTED RAINFALL...BUT "FLASHIER" SMALLER TRIBS COULD BE MORE AT RISK FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS. ALSO...THERE IS SOME RISK FOR SVR CONVECTION LTR IN THE DAY THU INTO THE EARLY EVE. GIVEN A DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING POTENTIALLY OVER OR JUST W OF THE FCST AREA...DEEP-LYRD SHEAR SHOULD BE IMPROVING WITH TIME. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW UNSTABLE WILL WE GET? GIVEN A SLOWER ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN (NOW NOT LIKELY TIL LTR IN THE DAY)...WE THINK THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE/SFC HTG INTO EARLY AFTN...PSBLY LEADING TO ML CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBO OF CAPE/SHEAR COULD WELL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STG WINDS/HAIL...WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DVLP LATE THU AFTN...IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER PCPN SHIELD/BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS BEEN PLACED INTO A SLGT RISK...AND WE'VE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...ALG WITH THAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FRI AND SAT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCTD IN NATURE...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS THE BROADER AREA OF FORCED LIFT WKNS...AND LIFTS TO OUR N AND E. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THIS PD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 420 PM WED UPDATE... CONCERNS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK AS A STAGNANT NORTH-SOUTH MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN TRANSPORTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. LATEST 12Z GEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INCREASINGLY BLOCKY PATTERN WITH VERY AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...VERY DEEP TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR FORECAST REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEEK. AS AN INDICATION OF HOW ANOMALOUS THE DEVELOPING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE...LATEST WPC EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS NOW SPEAKING OF POSSIBLE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE FOR AREAS CLOSER TO US...PWAT ANOMALY GRAPHICS ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING STRONG TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF BOTH LOW /MID-LEVEL AIR STREAMS WILL FUNNEL ITS WAY NORTH WITH TIME RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO EXACT DETAILS THIS FAR OUT BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHWRS/ISO STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS HR ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK/NORTHEAST PA. AS A RESULT...HAVE STARTED ELM AND BGM OFF WITH TEMPO THUNDER MENTION WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH WHERE IT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT AVP BETWEEN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. BEYOND THIS...RAPID CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY MID EVENING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL CENTRAL NEW YORK SITES AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WEAK WIND FLOW ALONG WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS IN A DECOUPLED ENVIRONMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 06Z. FOR NOW...HAVE HIT MOST CENTRAL NY SITES WITH AN IFR MENTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEYOND 13Z. AT AVP...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PA MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINAL. FOR NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY OFFER AN MVFR MENTION UNTIL DEGREE OF CLEARING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH SUN... THU NGT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TERMINALS IN POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS. SAT/SUN/MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046- 055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...CMG/KAH AVIATION...CMG