524 
FXUS64 KMEG 221511
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1011 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LAST NIGHTS 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ARE FORECAST TO EFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. ALSO...00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT CAPPING WAS
MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND ANTICIPATING THAT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AREAWIDE AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST AGAIN AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
MOST OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AS RENEWED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT LOWER WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL
CAPPING. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY HEAT UP THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE RIDGING
WILL BE STRONGEST. 

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER BY THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECAST
PERIODS AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6-10 KTS AFTER 22/15Z...AND
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 23/00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY VCTS MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  73  93  73 /  20  10  20  10 
MKL  90  67  90  68 /  20  10  20  10 
JBR  93  71  93  71 /  20  10  20  10 
TUP  92  68  92  69 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$