524 FXUS64 KMEG 221511 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1011 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ARS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/ DISCUSSION... BROAD BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LAST NIGHTS 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE FORECAST TO EFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY. ALSO...00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT CAPPING WAS MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND ANTICIPATING THAT THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE AREAWIDE AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH MOST OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AS RENEWED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT LOWER WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL CAPPING. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INTO THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY HEAT UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE RIDGING WILL BE STRONGEST. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER BY THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORKED OUT IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JLH && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6-10 KTS AFTER 22/15Z...AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 23/00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY VCTS MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CJC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 93 73 93 73 / 20 10 20 10 MKL 90 67 90 68 / 20 10 20 10 JBR 93 71 93 71 / 20 10 20 10 TUP 92 68 92 69 / 20 10 20 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$