538 
FXUS64 KMRX 190712
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
CALM WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN SOME
LOW STATUS NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 12-13Z OR SO. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN THE CLEARER CONDITIONS...REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ZONES CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST
FLOW THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THINK
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVALENT IN MOST SPOTS. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID NOT SEE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ON PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE STAYS
CENTERED GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE E TO SE...AND MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WAS 
ALREADY DEPICTED IN OUR FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE 
WATER INCREASING BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO I NUDGED POPS UP 
TO LOW CHANCE IN MOST AREAS FOR MONDAY. THIS WAS ALSO THE TREND FROM 
18/12Z GFSX TO 19/00Z GFSX MOS POPS. NO CHANGES MADE FOR TUESDAY 
WITH CHANCE POPS DAYTIME AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NIGHTTIME SUFFICIENT 
FOR NOW. 

FOR TEMPS...GFS AND GFSX MOS TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED...EXCEPT FOR 
STAYING MOSTLY BELOW THE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE FALLING 
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  64  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  10  20 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  63  87  66  88 /  10  10  20  10  20 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  62  88  65  88 /  10  10  20  10  20 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  84  58  86 /  10  10  20  10  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG