538 FXUS64 KMRX 190712 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CALM WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN SOME LOW STATUS NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 12-13Z OR SO. A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY GIVEN THE CLEARER CONDITIONS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST FLOW THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THINK DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVALENT IN MOST SPOTS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DID NOT SEE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ON PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE STAYS CENTERED GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE E TO SE...AND MAY ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WAS ALREADY DEPICTED IN OUR FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO I NUDGED POPS UP TO LOW CHANCE IN MOST AREAS FOR MONDAY. THIS WAS ALSO THE TREND FROM 18/12Z GFSX TO 19/00Z GFSX MOS POPS. NO CHANGES MADE FOR TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS DAYTIME AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NIGHTTIME SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. FOR TEMPS...GFS AND GFSX MOS TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED...EXCEPT FOR STAYING MOSTLY BELOW THE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 64 89 67 89 / 10 10 20 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 63 87 66 88 / 10 10 20 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 62 88 65 88 / 10 10 20 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 84 58 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/TG