951 
FXUS62 KMHX 281750 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP INLAND WITH
OTHERWISE FULL INSOLATION...AND TEMPS 78-81 F INLAND TO 75-77 F
ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES INDICATE EASTERN
NC AS 1.10-1.20 INCHES AROUND 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY
BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE KMHX 12Z SOUNDING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW... EXPECT PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM INLAND. WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND AS 12Z NAM/14Z RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE FROM HWY 17 N AND NW.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WEST INTO NORTH
CAROLINA AND IS FORECAST TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY BUT
WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR A VERY SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY
MAINLY FOR THE NW ZONES. WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
THICKNESS EXPECT THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND TO AROUND
80 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS LEADING TO MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND (SOME UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS) AND UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH UPPER HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DESPITE A MOIST S/SSW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE WATER WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... 
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CU HAS
DEVELOPED UNDER MARGINAL MOIST SWLY FLOW. THIS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE
HEATING SUBSIDES AND WILL THEN ONLY DEAL WITH SCT CIRRUS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THIS SOUNDS LIKE A RECIPE FOR FOG
FORMATION...SEEMS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE A BIT TOO HIGH TO
SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN DITCH FOG AT BEST. SWLY WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE TOMORROW AS BL MIXING COMMENCES. THE LOW/MID LEVELS LOOK
EVEN DRIER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SO DIURNAL CU WILL BE TOUGH TO
DEVELOP AND SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA
BREEZE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SHALLOW/BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM TUES...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT IN 9 SECOND
MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. SEAS 1-3 FT
EARLY WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
AS OF 245 AM TUE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. A GENERALLY S/SW WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/DAG
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG