951 FXUS62 KMHX 281750 CCA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1110 AM TUES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP INLAND WITH OTHERWISE FULL INSOLATION...AND TEMPS 78-81 F INLAND TO 75-77 F ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES INDICATE EASTERN NC AS 1.10-1.20 INCHES AROUND 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE KMHX 12Z SOUNDING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW... EXPECT PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND AS 12Z NAM/14Z RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE FROM HWY 17 N AND NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND IS FORECAST TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY BUT WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A VERY SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NW ZONES. WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER THICKNESS EXPECT THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE IN MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND (SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS) AND UPPER 60S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH UPPER HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DESPITE A MOIST S/SSW LOW- LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MARGINAL MOIST SWLY FLOW. THIS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE HEATING SUBSIDES AND WILL THEN ONLY DEAL WITH SCT CIRRUS FROM A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THIS SOUNDS LIKE A RECIPE FOR FOG FORMATION...SEEMS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE A BIT TOO HIGH TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN DITCH FOG AT BEST. SWLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TOMORROW AS BL MIXING COMMENCES. THE LOW/MID LEVELS LOOK EVEN DRIER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SO DIURNAL CU WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SHALLOW/BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1120 AM TUES...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT IN 9 SECOND MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. SEAS 1-3 FT EARLY WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 AM TUE...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A GENERALLY S/SW WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME/DAG SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/LEP MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG