992 
FXUS63 KTOP 052328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EASTWARD 
ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUED TO BROADLY WRAP AROUND THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH 
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE OH RIVER 
VALLEY INTO EASTERN IA...WHERE THE MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES EXTENDED 
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO AND EXTREME EASTERN KS. AS A 
RESULT THE LOW STRATUS HAS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA 
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SKIES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS 
NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 60. UNDER 
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES 
HAVE ONLY SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE HIGHS 
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AROUND 
600 PM WHEN SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST 
INTO AL...THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST 
AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 9PM. HIGH CLOUDS WERE ROTATING AROUND AN 
H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE 
CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF GROUND FOG TO 
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKER THEN 
THE GROUND FOG MAY BE QUITE PATCHY AND MAY ONLY FORM IN LOW-LYING 
AREAS...ALONG LAKES AND WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP 
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANY PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY MIX 
OUT BY 14Z. A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. 
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND A SECOND UPPER 
LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 

OTHERWISE... THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT 
PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE MODELS ARE 
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE 
TRENDS...THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE 
BEST TIMING AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE 
MENTION OF POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS 
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENING TO THE POINT THAT A WEAK POSITIVELY-TILTED 
TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END 
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY 
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY 
GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE LOW TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE 
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...HELPING TO PUSH THE GRADUALLY 
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF 
THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END 
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVER THE AREA 
WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW 
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND 
DOWNWARD WITH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MID TO LATE 
WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S 
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE 
MID/UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK AND COOLING INTO THE 40S BY THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS FORECAST. PERSISTENT STRATUS SHOWING
SOME HOLES AND MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH ITS CURRENT
LOCATION. EARLY SOUNDING DATA HAS THE STRATUS RATHER SHALLOW. AT
THIS POINT WILL PLAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AT KTOP AND
KFOE THOUGH IF IT HOLDS IT COULD DROP TO IFR. ANY PERSISTENT
CLEARING COULD GIVE WAY TO BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL SUGGEST
SUCH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS TRANSPIRE.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...65