992 FXUS63 KTOP 052328 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 628 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BROADLY WRAP AROUND THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN IA...WHERE THE MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES EXTENDED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO AND EXTREME EASTERN KS. AS A RESULT THE LOW STRATUS HAS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SKIES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 60. UNDER THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AROUND 600 PM WHEN SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AL...THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 9PM. HIGH CLOUDS WERE ROTATING AROUND AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKER THEN THE GROUND FOG MAY BE QUITE PATCHY AND MAY ONLY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS...ALONG LAKES AND WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MONDAY...ANY PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z. A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS...THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE BEST TIMING AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MENTION OF POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENING TO THE POINT THAT A WEAK POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE LOW TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...HELPING TO PUSH THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND COOLING INTO THE 40S BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013 CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS FORECAST. PERSISTENT STRATUS SHOWING SOME HOLES AND MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION. EARLY SOUNDING DATA HAS THE STRATUS RATHER SHALLOW. AT THIS POINT WILL PLAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AT KTOP AND KFOE THOUGH IF IT HOLDS IT COULD DROP TO IFR. ANY PERSISTENT CLEARING COULD GIVE WAY TO BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL SUGGEST SUCH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TRANSPIRE. 65 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARGAN LONG TERM...HENNECKE AVIATION...65