010 
FXUS62 KMLB 230743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SPANNING THE ERN SEABOARD WILL BE THE 
DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FL PENINSULA AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OFF 
THE CAROLINA COAST WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL 
WATERS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A STEADY 
NE FLOW ACRS THAT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST. 
THE WINDS ALSO WILL PULL DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR INTO CENTRAL FL 
THAT WILL ERODE WHAT LITTLE LOW LVL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS FROM 
MONDAY'S FROPA. 

DESPITE DECREASING CLOUD COVER...COOL AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE 
NE BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ARND 5F BLO CLIMO AVG...M/U70S ALONG 
THE COAST...U70S/L80S INTERIOR. ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP MIN 
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS 
(L/M70S)...WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL 
ALLOW MINS TO FALL NEAR TO THERE CLIMO AVGS (L60S).

WED-FRI...A BUBBLE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ALONG THE SE US 
COAST EARLY WED WL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLC VEERING OF LCL
WINDS WILL MODIFY AIRMASS WITH SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
TREND. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL ACT TO KEEP A RATHER MILD
AND GENERALLY DRY REGIME LOCALLY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST BY THURSDAY ONWARD.

EXTENDED...A CONTINUATION OF WEAK TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW KEEP
RATHER MINIMAL RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUID SUGGESTS
SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE POOLING OVER N AND PERHAPS CENTRAL FL
EARLY NEXT WEEK ENOUGH TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP...HOWEVER AND
ADVERTISED FRONTAL APPROACHES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FOR FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 23/14Z...AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-030 ALL SITES. AFT 
23/14Z...VFR ALL SITES...NE SFC WND G18-13KTS CONTG THRU 24/00Z.  

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL COMBINE 
WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO GENERATE A 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC TODAY. A LARGE SWELL 
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AS WELL WITH SEAS RUNNING 6-8FT THIS 
MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 5-7FT BY EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. SCA SEAS 
WILL LINGER S OF SEBASTIAN INLET PAST SUNSET AND INTO THE PREDAWN 
HRS. ALL SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT AREAWIDE THRU SUNRISE.    

DIMINISHING SEA HGHTS WL OCCUR DURING WED AND THU AND HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED ONLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WED. MORE FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDS WL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS DIMINISH
AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMPRISE LARGER PORTION OF WV COMPONENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIG PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE 
LCL WX PATTERN. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SUFFICIENT OCEAN 
MOISTURE ACRS THE PENINSULA TO KEEP AFTN MIN RH VALUES ABV 40PCT. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  62  81  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  82  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  77  65  82  65 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  78  66  81  63 /   0   0   0   0 
LEE  82  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  81  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  82  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  78  67  82  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO 
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS 
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM 
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST