010 FXUS62 KMLB 230743 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 343 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SPANNING THE ERN SEABOARD WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FL PENINSULA AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A STEADY NE FLOW ACRS THAT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST. THE WINDS ALSO WILL PULL DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR INTO CENTRAL FL THAT WILL ERODE WHAT LITTLE LOW LVL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS FROM MONDAY'S FROPA. DESPITE DECREASING CLOUD COVER...COOL AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE NE BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ARND 5F BLO CLIMO AVG...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST...U70S/L80S INTERIOR. ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS (L/M70S)...WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL NEAR TO THERE CLIMO AVGS (L60S). WED-FRI...A BUBBLE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ALONG THE SE US COAST EARLY WED WL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLC VEERING OF LCL WINDS WILL MODIFY AIRMASS WITH SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TREND. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL ACT TO KEEP A RATHER MILD AND GENERALLY DRY REGIME LOCALLY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST BY THURSDAY ONWARD. EXTENDED...A CONTINUATION OF WEAK TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW KEEP RATHER MINIMAL RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUID SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE POOLING OVER N AND PERHAPS CENTRAL FL EARLY NEXT WEEK ENOUGH TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP...HOWEVER AND ADVERTISED FRONTAL APPROACHES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FOR FORCING. && .AVIATION... THRU 23/14Z...AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-030 ALL SITES. AFT 23/14Z...VFR ALL SITES...NE SFC WND G18-13KTS CONTG THRU 24/00Z. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC TODAY. A LARGE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AS WELL WITH SEAS RUNNING 6-8FT THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 5-7FT BY EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. SCA SEAS WILL LINGER S OF SEBASTIAN INLET PAST SUNSET AND INTO THE PREDAWN HRS. ALL SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT AREAWIDE THRU SUNRISE. DIMINISHING SEA HGHTS WL OCCUR DURING WED AND THU AND HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED ONLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WED. MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS WL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS DIMINISH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMPRISE LARGER PORTION OF WV COMPONENT. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIG PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE LCL WX PATTERN. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SUFFICIENT OCEAN MOISTURE ACRS THE PENINSULA TO KEEP AFTN MIN RH VALUES ABV 40PCT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 78 66 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 81 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 67 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST