National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2013-03-31 11:20 UTC
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924 FXUS64 KTSA 311120 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 620 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. GUSTY NW WINDS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK AND WEAKENING STORMS IN NW AR WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z. A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SE OK ACTIVITY...WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD 18Z. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NW AR AND SE OK TAFS...WITH IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/ DISCUSSION... SECOND CONVECTIVE ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST AT 09Z. FIRST ROUND PROVIDED LARGE HAIL DURING THE EVENING AND A COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW ROUND OF THUNDER ACTION MAKING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY. HR CUBED MODEL DIMINISHES NORTHERN LINE NOW IN OSAGE WASHINGTON CRAIG COUNTIES WITH TIME AND ENHANCES WEST EAST BAND NEAR I-40 AXIS IN CENTRAL / WESTERN OK. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS CARRIED THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OK. HIGHEST POPS NEAR RED RIVER. MARGINAL POP THIS AFTERNOON ONLY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WRF VERY FAST WITH THE COLD AIR WHILE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS...ECM...UKM...GFS SLOWER. COMPOSITE MAX TEMP MONDAY. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WET PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.0 MUCH OF AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL BACK BRINGING GOOD LIFT UP OVER THE STALLED FRONT PARKED SOUTH OF TSA FORECAST AREA. BETTER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN A FAIR BET ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. GW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 44 67 41 / 50 0 20 70 FSM 74 47 75 46 / 60 0 10 50 MLC 73 45 76 46 / 100 0 10 50 BVO 73 40 59 39 / 30 0 40 60 FYV 68 39 67 41 / 60 0 10 60 BYV 69 41 63 38 / 50 0 10 70 MKO 72 45 73 45 / 50 0 10 60 MIO 71 42 58 39 / 50 0 30 60 F10 73 45 74 45 / 50 0 10 70 HHW 73 51 76 50 / 80 10 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...18