924 
FXUS64 KTSA 311120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY NW WINDS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE OK AND WEAKENING STORMS IN NW AR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 14-15Z. A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SE OK ACTIVITY...WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD 18Z. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE NW AR AND SE OK TAFS...WITH IMPROVEMENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
SECOND CONVECTIVE ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST AT 09Z.  FIRST ROUND PROVIDED
LARGE HAIL DURING THE EVENING AND A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW ROUND OF THUNDER ACTION
MAKING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH  NORTHWEST
OSAGE COUNTY. HR CUBED MODEL DIMINISHES NORTHERN
LINE NOW IN OSAGE WASHINGTON CRAIG COUNTIES WITH 
TIME AND  ENHANCES WEST EAST BAND NEAR I-40 AXIS
IN CENTRAL / WESTERN OK. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
CARRIED THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OK.  HIGHEST POPS 
NEAR RED RIVER. MARGINAL POP THIS AFTERNOON ONLY
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  WRF  VERY  FAST WITH THE COLD AIR WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS...ECM...UKM...GFS SLOWER.
COMPOSITE MAX TEMP MONDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT  WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WET
PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.0 MUCH OF AREA. UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK BRINGING GOOD LIFT UP OVER THE STALLED
FRONT PARKED SOUTH OF TSA FORECAST AREA.  BETTER
THAN AN INCH OF RAIN A FAIR BET ESPECIALLY SOUTH.   
 
WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  44  67  41 /  50   0  20  70 
FSM   74  47  75  46 /  60   0  10  50 
MLC   73  45  76  46 / 100   0  10  50 
BVO   73  40  59  39 /  30   0  40  60 
FYV   68  39  67  41 /  60   0  10  60 
BYV   69  41  63  38 /  50   0  10  70 
MKO   72  45  73  45 /  50   0  10  60 
MIO   71  42  58  39 /  50   0  30  60 
F10   73  45  74  45 /  50   0  10  70 
HHW   73  51  76  50 /  80  10  10  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18