304 
FXUS61 KBGM 310803
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY LOOKS CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1030 PM. HIGH CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
WITH HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING. TWEAKED THE GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 


UPDATED AT 630 PM. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CU HAS
DISSIPATED ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
INTO THE 30S SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET... THEN MORE SLOWLY TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. 

230 PM UPDATE...
A NICE DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
U40S AND L50S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CLOUDS COME IN LATE...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO A30. HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FURTHER
HELPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY THE WEATHER WILL TURN WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTN AND
EARLY EVE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH
SO FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN WITH SOME SNOW MELT. A FEW
RIVER POINTS WILL RISE A FOOT OR TWO BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS THE TUG QPF COULD BE A LITTLE MORE THAN
HALF AN INCH WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE SW. 

THE MODELS SHOWING LESS OF A DRY FRONT BETWEEN FRONTS AND THEN
PROBABLY ONLY FOR NE PA AT MOST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE
STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER AS IN MONDAY MORNING. JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. MON AFTN AND NGT GOOD CAA AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
LOWERING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START MONDAY
AFTN WITH A LL WEST FLOW. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C BY EVE. IN
ADDITION THE DENDRITE ZONE LOWERS TO 5K FT FIRMLY IN THE SATURATED
LAYER AND LIFT. SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH A DEEP NW COLD
FLOW. THIS FAR OUT THE BEST CHANCES OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE NORTHERN ONEIDA WITH A 280 LL FLOW. HELPING THE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SOME REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND KEEPING SFC TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW LAKE
HURON WILL ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO WHAT LAKE ONTARIO HAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING AS
INDIVIDUAL 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A LIFTING OUT OF THE
EASTERN TROF TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A GLANCING BLOW BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT
COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME RAIN, OR MIXED RAIN
AND WET SNOW. THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNRESTRICTED VFR WILL DEGRADE AS
RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 18Z-21Z ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES AND
CIGS TO DEVELOP...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF IFR
CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO AT KAVP WHERE A LIGHT
SWLY WIND SHIFT TENDS TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS IN THE
500-1000 FT AGL LAYER. CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE
MOMENT DUE TO THE FORECAST TIMING.

WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE-S AT 15-25 KTS AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT WHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SWLY SHIFT AT KAVP BEFORE 06Z.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MIXING WITH -SHSN MON AFTN-
MON NGT...WHILE ALSO BECOMING FOCUSED MAINLY ON CENTRAL NY.

TUE-WED MORN...SCATTERED -SHSN FROM LAKE EFFECT...MAINLY CENTRAL NY.

WED AFTN-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB