304 FXUS61 KBGM 310803 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY LOOKS CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AT 1030 PM. HIGH CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING. TWEAKED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATED AT 630 PM. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CU HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 30S SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET... THEN MORE SLOWLY TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. 230 PM UPDATE... A NICE DAY WITH SOME CUMULUS THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO U40S AND L50S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS COME IN LATE...SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO A30. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FURTHER HELPING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM UPDATE... SUNDAY THE WEATHER WILL TURN WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH SO FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN WITH SOME SNOW MELT. A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL RISE A FOOT OR TWO BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS THE TUG QPF COULD BE A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF AN INCH WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE SW. THE MODELS SHOWING LESS OF A DRY FRONT BETWEEN FRONTS AND THEN PROBABLY ONLY FOR NE PA AT MOST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER AS IN MONDAY MORNING. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MON AFTN AND NGT GOOD CAA AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND LOWERING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START MONDAY AFTN WITH A LL WEST FLOW. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C BY EVE. IN ADDITION THE DENDRITE ZONE LOWERS TO 5K FT FIRMLY IN THE SATURATED LAYER AND LIFT. SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY THE WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH A DEEP NW COLD FLOW. THIS FAR OUT THE BEST CHANCES OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA WITH A 280 LL FLOW. HELPING THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOME REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND KEEPING SFC TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW LAKE HURON WILL ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO WHAT LAKE ONTARIO HAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING AS INDIVIDUAL 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN TROF TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A GLANCING BLOW BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME RAIN, OR MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW. THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNRESTRICTED VFR WILL DEGRADE AS RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 18Z-21Z ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO DEVELOP...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO AT KAVP WHERE A LIGHT SWLY WIND SHIFT TENDS TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS IN THE 500-1000 FT AGL LAYER. CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE FORECAST TIMING. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE-S AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SWLY SHIFT AT KAVP BEFORE 06Z. .OUTLOOK... SUN NGT-MON NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MIXING WITH -SHSN MON AFTN- MON NGT...WHILE ALSO BECOMING FOCUSED MAINLY ON CENTRAL NY. TUE-WED MORN...SCATTERED -SHSN FROM LAKE EFFECT...MAINLY CENTRAL NY. WED AFTN-THU...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB