107 
FXUS63 KICT 290014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
714 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

EARLY THIS EVENING SOME --RA WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SE KS ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT THAT CURVED FROM THE OK PANHANDLE...ACROSS SRN KS...TO
THE MO/AR BORDER. AIRMASS DRY THRU ~10KFT. AS SUCH NO MORE THAN VIRGA
OCCURRING AT 2355Z. WARM FRONT'S PRESENCE COUPLED WITH INCREASED WARM
MOIST 925-850MB ADVECTION WILL ENABLE -SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO INCREASE
AS NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TARGETING SE KS WHERE SAID
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRONGEST. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS SUCH THIS
SCENARIO SO NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE DENSE FOG LOOK TO AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMMENCES. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A COUPLE WEAK
WAVES BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A
MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD SURGING SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...HOWEVER MUCH
COLDER AIR COULD EASILY CHANGE THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. A DECENT MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LOOKS 
TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ALIGNING ITSELF WITH 
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERMAL 
PROFILES SUGGEST A COLD RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME 
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO 
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY. 

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

ALL TERMINALS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS TIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN COMBINATION
OF WARM MOIST ELEVATED ADVECTION AND WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LWR CIGS & VSBYS OVER ALL TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS &
VSBYS IS HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH WORST VSBYS (~1SM) OCCURRING AT
KRSL & KSLN. STILL ANTICIPATE -TSRA TO DEVELOP & INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS SE ACROSS CNTRL & ERN KS.
IN RESPONSE THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK COLD
VARIANT THAT'LL PUSH SLOWLY S INTO NRN OK LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE FRONT
MAY STALL IN W-E MANNER FRI MORNING. MOST AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
STATUS LATE FRI MORNING AS WINDS BECOME E/NE <=10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  64  51  72 /  30  20  30  30 
HUTCHINSON      46  64  50  72 /  20  10  20  20 
NEWTON          46  64  49  71 /  20  10  30  20 
ELDORADO        48  64  49  69 /  30  20  30  30 
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  65  51  71 /  40  30  30  30 
RUSSELL         40  66  49  71 /  10  10  20  20 
GREAT BEND      42  66  50  72 /  10  10  20  20 
SALINA          42  64  48  70 /  10  10  20  20 
MCPHERSON       45  64  49  71 /  20  10  20  20 
COFFEYVILLE     50  65  50  69 /  60  50  50  30 
CHANUTE         48  62  49  68 /  60  20  30  30 
IOLA            48  62  48  67 /  60  20  30  30 
PARSONS-KPPF    49  64  50  68 /  60  40  40  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES