107 FXUS63 KICT 290014 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 714 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 EARLY THIS EVENING SOME --RA WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SE KS ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT CURVED FROM THE OK PANHANDLE...ACROSS SRN KS...TO THE MO/AR BORDER. AIRMASS DRY THRU ~10KFT. AS SUCH NO MORE THAN VIRGA OCCURRING AT 2355Z. WARM FRONT'S PRESENCE COUPLED WITH INCREASED WARM MOIST 925-850MB ADVECTION WILL ENABLE -SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO INCREASE AS NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TARGETING SE KS WHERE SAID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRONGEST. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS SUCH THIS SCENARIO SO NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE DENSE FOG LOOK TO AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMMENCES. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD SURGING SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...HOWEVER MUCH COLDER AIR COULD EASILY CHANGE THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. A DECENT MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LOOKS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ALIGNING ITSELF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A COLD RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY. JAKUB && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 ALL TERMINALS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS TIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST ELEVATED ADVECTION AND WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE LWR CIGS & VSBYS OVER ALL TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS & VSBYS IS HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH WORST VSBYS (~1SM) OCCURRING AT KRSL & KSLN. STILL ANTICIPATE -TSRA TO DEVELOP & INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS SE ACROSS CNTRL & ERN KS. IN RESPONSE THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK COLD VARIANT THAT'LL PUSH SLOWLY S INTO NRN OK LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL IN W-E MANNER FRI MORNING. MOST AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR STATUS LATE FRI MORNING AS WINDS BECOME E/NE <=10KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 47 64 51 72 / 30 20 30 30 HUTCHINSON 46 64 50 72 / 20 10 20 20 NEWTON 46 64 49 71 / 20 10 30 20 ELDORADO 48 64 49 69 / 30 20 30 30 WINFIELD-KWLD 49 65 51 71 / 40 30 30 30 RUSSELL 40 66 49 71 / 10 10 20 20 GREAT BEND 42 66 50 72 / 10 10 20 20 SALINA 42 64 48 70 / 10 10 20 20 MCPHERSON 45 64 49 71 / 20 10 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 50 65 50 69 / 60 50 50 30 CHANUTE 48 62 49 68 / 60 20 30 30 IOLA 48 62 48 67 / 60 20 30 30 PARSONS-KPPF 49 64 50 68 / 60 40 40 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ES