878 
FXUS62 KMHX 211345 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NC. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWS.  

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL OFF THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH
TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY AFTER A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE COAST EARLY...ALLOWING FOR
FULL INSOLATION ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE VERY LOW...20 TO 25 PERCENT. NW
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS GOOD CAA SURGE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM THURS...HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE
WARNING FOR ONSLOW...CARTERET...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE AND DARE
COUNTIES TONIGHT...FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8-9AM FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING EARLY WILL RANGE 6-8 KT IN NW FLOW...A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION SHOULD SET UP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALLOWING MIXING TO
DIMINISH AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. USED A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...AND LATEST
MAV/MET MOS WHICH INDICATE LOW TO MID 20S FOR COASTAL PLAIN ZONES
TO MID/UPPER 20S FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES. THE OBX REGION
LOOKS TO RANGE 30-32 ALTHOUGH MIXING COULD HANG ON LONGER ACROSS
THE OBX SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZE WARNING IS LOWEST HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY. AFTER A COLD START WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES BY
EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE WEST TEXAS REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH
SECONDARY MILLER TYPE B CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS SECOND LOW WILL RACE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND DEEP LIFT OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE RAISED POP INTO THE LIKELY TO HIGH LIKELY RANGE.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX FORECAST KEEP THE MAIN INSTABILITY OFF SHORE SO
WILL NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A
HALF INCH OR SO ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY 20-25 KT WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WARM ADVECTION/WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY WITH
SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO GENERALLY VFR FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURS...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH WINDS
STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.

LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SWELLS 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AND INCREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OVER THE WATERS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS SCA HEADLINE AND TIMING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM OFF OCRACOKE NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED SCAS FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND AS EASTERN PORTIONS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KT FOR A PERIOD OF
ABOUT 6-8 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL
BUILD 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN-HOUSE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS OUT OF
COMMISSION AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER LATEST VERSION OF WAVEWATCH III
APPEARED REASONABLE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS AND OVERALL SCENARIO IN
THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER AROUND TO THE N AND NE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND MOVES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST WAVEWATCH BUILDS SW WAVE ENERGY WITH SEAS
JUMPING TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR 
     NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT 
     TONIGHT FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT 
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG/LEP