878 FXUS62 KMHX 211345 AAA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 945 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1000 AM THURS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NC. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AFTER A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE COAST EARLY...ALLOWING FOR FULL INSOLATION ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE VERY LOW...20 TO 25 PERCENT. NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS GOOD CAA SURGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... AS OF 410 AM THURS...HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE WARNING FOR ONSLOW...CARTERET...AND OUTER BANKS HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES TONIGHT...FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8-9AM FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EARLY WILL RANGE 6-8 KT IN NW FLOW...A WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION SHOULD SET UP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALLOWING MIXING TO DIMINISH AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...AND LATEST MAV/MET MOS WHICH INDICATE LOW TO MID 20S FOR COASTAL PLAIN ZONES TO MID/UPPER 20S FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES. THE OBX REGION LOOKS TO RANGE 30-32 ALTHOUGH MIXING COULD HANG ON LONGER ACROSS THE OBX SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZE WARNING IS LOWEST HERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY. AFTER A COLD START WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ON SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR PROGRESSION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE WEST TEXAS REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH SECONDARY MILLER TYPE B CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS SECOND LOW WILL RACE UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND DEEP LIFT OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AND HAVE RAISED POP INTO THE LIKELY TO HIGH LIKELY RANGE. MODEL LIFTED INDEX FORECAST KEEP THE MAIN INSTABILITY OFF SHORE SO WILL NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR SO ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 710 AM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY 20-25 KT WITH CLEAR SKIES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WARM ADVECTION/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FOR SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO GENERALLY VFR FOR MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURS...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE NW. LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SWELLS 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EAST OVER THE WATERS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS SCA HEADLINE AND TIMING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OFF OCRACOKE NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED SCAS FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AS EASTERN PORTIONS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KT FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT 6-8 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN-HOUSE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS OUT OF COMMISSION AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER LATEST VERSION OF WAVEWATCH III APPEARED REASONABLE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS AND OVERALL SCENARIO IN THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE N AND NE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND MOVES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST WAVEWATCH BUILDS SW WAVE ENERGY WITH SEAS JUMPING TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG/LEP