726 
FXUS62 KFFC 191404
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1004 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013


.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE GA COAST AND STRETCHES BACK 
THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 

LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND 
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 
20-25 MPH AS THE COLD AIR SURGE COMES DOWN...BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 

ALSO WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION 
HAS SLOWED DOWN HEATING THIS MORNING.

HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ 

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. 
HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANCE TO 
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE CWA BY 14-16Z...WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE 
REGION TODAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

MODELS STILL PICKING UP ON ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG IMPULSE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES EXTREMELY 
LIMITED...WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR 
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HARDLY ENOUGH TO COUNT. WILL HAVE TO 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODELS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AS WINTRY PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE 
COLD ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WET BULBING.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY 
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND THURSDAY MORNING LOWS...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THROUGH TH LOCAL AREA WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS. TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE COOL TO COLD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH EURO THE COLDEST DEPICTING TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WILL SEE ONE OF THE RARE INSTANCES THIS
WINTER OF A PSEUDO SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW LATE THURSDAY GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROFILE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON ITS EXACT
LOCATION.

EURO HAS IT OVER NORTH GEORGIA WHILE GFS IS MORE OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THIS PLACEMENT WILL BE CRITICAL AS TEMPS LOOK TO BE COLD
ENOUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PRECIP
INITIALLY. TRIED TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE A BIT BETTER WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET EVENT IN STORE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT TAKING IT INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WARM NOSE SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AT SOME POINT
EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THEREAFTER AND THEREFORE
DI NOT GO TOO HIGH ON ANY ONE DAY WITH POPS KEEPING THEM GENERALLY
IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY.GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
WEDGE DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES MORE SAT PRECIP WHILE
EURO HOLDS OFF MORE UNTIL SUN. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE WET AND WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL
MODEL RUNS TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS. EURO HAS BACKED OFF WITH LATEST
RUNS OF A SECONDARY LOW MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE ONE
MORE BULLISH ON WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP IN
LOW END POPS AND KEEP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

DEESE

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NW
WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 6-8KT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  38  64  33 /   5   5   5   5 
ATLANTA         66  41  61  33 /   5   5   5   5 
BLAIRSVILLE     58  31  55  27 /   0   5  10   5 
CARTERSVILLE    63  36  61  32 /   0   5   5   5 
COLUMBUS        72  44  65  39 /   5  10   5   5 
GAINESVILLE     64  39  59  33 /   5   5   5   5 
MACON           73  40  65  37 /   5  10   5   5 
ROME            64  35  61  31 /   0   5   5   5 
PEACHTREE CITY  67  35  62  33 /   5   5   5   5 
VIDALIA         76  47  66  41 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LISTEMAA