726 FXUS62 KFFC 191404 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1004 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE GA COAST AND STRETCHES BACK THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20-25 MPH AS THE COLD AIR SURGE COMES DOWN...BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION HAS SLOWED DOWN HEATING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY GRIDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 14-16Z...WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS STILL PICKING UP ON ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG IMPULSE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES EXTREMELY LIMITED...WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HARDLY ENOUGH TO COUNT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODELS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AS WINTRY PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WET BULBING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND THURSDAY MORNING LOWS...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 31 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THROUGH TH LOCAL AREA WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE COOL TO COLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH EURO THE COLDEST DEPICTING TEMPS SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WILL SEE ONE OF THE RARE INSTANCES THIS WINTER OF A PSEUDO SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW LATE THURSDAY GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT PROFILE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A ZONE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION. EURO HAS IT OVER NORTH GEORGIA WHILE GFS IS MORE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS PLACEMENT WILL BE CRITICAL AS TEMPS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY. TRIED TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE A BIT BETTER WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET EVENT IN STORE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT TAKING IT INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. WARM NOSE SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THEREAFTER AND THEREFORE DI NOT GO TOO HIGH ON ANY ONE DAY WITH POPS KEEPING THEM GENERALLY IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY.GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES MORE SAT PRECIP WHILE EURO HOLDS OFF MORE UNTIL SUN. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE WET AND WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS. EURO HAS BACKED OFF WITH LATEST RUNS OF A SECONDARY LOW MOVING THROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE ONE MORE BULLISH ON WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP IN LOW END POPS AND KEEP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW. DEESE AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 6-8KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 38 64 33 / 5 5 5 5 ATLANTA 66 41 61 33 / 5 5 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 58 31 55 27 / 0 5 10 5 CARTERSVILLE 63 36 61 32 / 0 5 5 5 COLUMBUS 72 44 65 39 / 5 10 5 5 GAINESVILLE 64 39 59 33 / 5 5 5 5 MACON 73 40 65 37 / 5 10 5 5 ROME 64 35 61 31 / 0 5 5 5 PEACHTREE CITY 67 35 62 33 / 5 5 5 5 VIDALIA 76 47 66 41 / 20 10 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LISTEMAA