714 
FXUS64 KMAF 190911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
YESTERDAY WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR AND
COOLING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS LOSE CONSISTENCY. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW AND THIS WEEK IS NO
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING COOLER AIR
SOUTH WHILE THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A
BETTER JOB LATELY SO TRENDED THIS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
DURING THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME WHICH AGAIN IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION COULD CERTAINLY BE CORRECT WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MODIFYING THE FRONT MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE
ECWMF HAS DEPICTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. 

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COOL SURGE AND COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD INCREASE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION.

HENNIG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WELL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DUE TO 
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  43  67  51  /   0   0   0   0 
BIG SPRING TX              77  45  67  53  /   0  10   0   0 
CARLSBAD NM                79  44  70  49  /   0   0   0   0 
DRYDEN TX                  88  56  70  53  /   0  20  20   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  48  68  55  /   0  10  20   0 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  40  67  48  /   0   0   0   0 
HOBBS NM                   76  41  67  48  /   0   0   0   0 
MARFA TX                   76  42  64  42  /   0   0  10   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  44  68  53  /   0  10   0   0 
ODESSA TX                  78  45  66  53  /   0  10   0   0 
WINK TX                    87  47  72  52  /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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