714 FXUS64 KMAF 190911 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 411 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR AND COOLING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS LOSE CONSISTENCY. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW AND THIS WEEK IS NO EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING COOLER AIR SOUTH WHILE THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB LATELY SO TRENDED THIS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF DURING THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME WHICH AGAIN IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION COULD CERTAINLY BE CORRECT WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS MODIFYING THE FRONT MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECWMF HAS DEPICTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COOL SURGE AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD INCREASE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HENNIG && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WELL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 76 43 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 77 45 67 53 / 0 10 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 79 44 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 88 56 70 53 / 0 20 20 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 80 48 68 55 / 0 10 20 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 72 40 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 76 41 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 76 42 64 42 / 0 0 10 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 80 44 68 53 / 0 10 0 0 ODESSA TX 78 45 66 53 / 0 10 0 0 WINK TX 87 47 72 52 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 27/10